Tuesday, July 22, 2014

A Long Run

BHARATFORGE is in a long run from last one year and gained almost 251% in that year. The slope of the graph is almost 45%(which is an ideal movement) and the stock is continuously making life time highs.

            The stock moved in a range of 200-250 in last April to July and then eventually breakout from that range and start a stronger up move. Any technical analyst can easily pick up that move, and must have enjoyed the rally. The fundamentals are also suggesting a further stronger up move ahead, as the company trying to expand their business in Europe and America, however it is not our cup of tea. But did everyone enjoyed that rally?

          The answer is no, because there are many other traders who always like to predict tops and bottom(I don`t know how) and after every consecutive up move they like to short. These are called counter trend traders, who always trade against the trend. I am not implying that their method does not work in market and they don`t make money, but it is more risky and uncomfortable to take these kind of trades.

         The conclusion is, picking up a trend and following it is more easier and fruitful rather than trading against of a trend. So traders should try to be safe side of the market, to be with the trend.

1 comment:

Rajat said...

Although I don't trade using discretionary methods, but reading Albrooks found this useful guideline to even start thinking of trading counter trend when a trend is going on

1) Wait for a trendline break
2) Wait for a weak test of the old high
3) Wait for a strong breakout bar in your direction

All 3 points increase probabilities in your favor.