Sunday, May 4, 2014

Happy days are here again?

Ache din aane waale hain?

Please note that the question mark is mine.

Today, I was recovering from a surgical extraction of my wisdom tooth, so started surfing news channels. I ended up with NDTV India which was broadcasting an opinion poll for 33 seats in UP where elections are still to be held. BJP was given 23 seats, the congress 1 (Amethi, I presume), SP - 6 I think, and, BSP 3.

Now, NDTV is not a pro BJP channel, it is quite the opposite, therefore, the channel cannot be accused of bias.

If the final round of opinion polls is an indication of the mood of the nation, then it would be fair to say that the NDA is likely to form the new government.

What happens after the election results?

The Nifty has broken out of a six year consolidation, on the upside. This suggests higher levels are coming. The election results in favor of Mr Modi can create a short term momentum on the upside, but the trend will remain up, even if a hung parliament comes about. In that case, the next upswing will be postponed. If the NDA wins, the next up move can come almost immediately, to 7000 Nifty or higher. At some point the rally with again enter into  a consolidation.

Charts suggest that a new bull market is beginning. Now, charts cannot forecast election results. So, the message is: no matter who wins or does not win, the uptrend is likely to continue.


Sandip said...

Sahi bola sirji aapne... Achche din zarur aane wale hai.. Nifty didn't broke 6 yrs old congestion range just to move few hundred/percentage points. We are likely to see multi year bull run...

jagjit singh said...

I am somewhat worried about nifty charts. Please tell me if i am wrong because i am not an analyst..just an investor. I think nifty just completed a "megaphone pattern" at its top, which is said to be a reversal pattern in a bull market. Can you please clarify more about this pattern.