Saturday, October 27, 2012

Crude Oil may be ready for a decline

Peter Brandt in his Post, gives a chart of Crude oil where a bearish head and shoulder pattern is visible.

A similar pattern can be found in the near month contract chart of MCX Crude. There is a slight difference because MCX Crude is influenced by currency fluctuations also. Yet, the bearish possibility is clear in crude.

What can be the influence of falling crude prices on Indian Markets? Conventional wisdom suggests that declining crude price is bullish for Indian stocks. Often, the opposite happens when crude falls together with most other asset classes including stocks.

Oil Marketing companies should be direct beneficiaries of falling crude prices. This relationship is valid. What about Reliance, ONGC, Cairn (Is Cairn influenced by international prices?), users of petro products like Paints, Fertilisers, Pesticides? How does this influence ethanol producers like Renuka?

These are interesting questions. I hope readers will answer them.

To me, Crude becomes a trading lay, so does BPCL. All trading is done on charts.

Reader views are welcome.

1 comment:

lipsa herry said...

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