Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Trend Day today

Today was a trend day, the Nifty broek its 15 minute low at 4925, never went up to cross the 15 minute high. By the end of the day, it was giving a gain of 90 points.I had a bullish bias in the morning, so I did not take the opening range trade  - (my mistake - when we do not follow the market, we lose out). Then, towards mid-day, 60 minute futures chart suggested a breakdown from a trading range. We closed our long positions, went short and then covered towards the end of the day. Chart below:



10 comments:

gourv said...

Hello Sir,

I am a big fan and follower of you.
I read your blogs daily.Today I heard you in CNBC being bullish and looking to go long on dip.However I was not convinced with this.And my doubt got more doubtful when NIfty could not crossed 4957 after gap up.Hence I went short @4937.My SL is @4957.I dont have target.I will keep lowering my SL if Nifty continue to go down.Your thought on this???

Regards
Gourav(Working in TCS meet in CNBC investor camp CHENNAI and BANGALORE)

Abhinav Srivastava said...

Thanks for these insights Sudarshan and team. I hope you meant to say "Target is 4824", not 4284.. Right?

Nirav said...

Sir,

Few days back i asked you a question regarding the way you judge the market before opening and chose the mechanical trading system.

My comment was like below on the post "excerpts from book - Market Mind Games".

"I do not understand what you have written in earlier post that “I make a judgement call on likely market behavior, before the markets open. This makes it easy for me to use mechanical methods to trade during the day, since I know which side of the market / with what anticipation, I am trading.” Because if you are wrong on your judgement then you may lose very big trade of mechanical system and It may be very costly in the mechanical system profitability."

I think today it happens like that. So, I just want to ask you that is it better to trade mechanical systems as they are designed or we should apply our mind in between?

Waiting for your reply.

Thanks.

Rajveer said...

Sir ji,

I was too surprised by the your bullish bias since the opening candle was a red candle. My first mistake was to take a long trade after 2 candles at 9.25 which was agian inside red candle. Target of 5000 nifty made me greedy. Greed can make anyone blind.

The nifty gave bearish candle breakdown at 9.35 am with considation breakdown. I was too much confused. Since, i was long 2 nifty, long 2 C4800 and short C5000 , Short P4800 and long P4700. Since , the nifty was not moving up, i short 3 mini nifty at 4908 to further hedge my position.

I was angry and wondering that i would have been short 5 contracts already if the morning bias did not mentioned "Avoid Short Selling" Advice. How could Guru ji miss bearish pattern? But, nobody can control the opening bias and what the market do afterwards.

After mid day. It was clear we were going down. I short 3 nifty first at 4867 and then 2 again at 4874 following Chaos indicator. I covered at 4855, 4840, 4838 and 4845 finally. I was short 100 nifty again at 4835 but, bottom was already formed at 4831. so, i covered at 4836. I was reluctant to carry i short nifty, but, relied on words of Guru ji to cover all positions at the end of the day. I covered my positions with C4800, C5000 and covered P4800 and retained P4700, since, a gap down is expected tomorrow. I also Short C5000 and Long C5100 to eat premium since i expect we are not going above 200 DMA this expiry.

Sir, please suggest whether my thinking pschology was correct today during trading hours or not? Any views in the form of reply or blog post like Good, Average or poor will be highly appreciated.

AK said...

sir which software is this? can we buy it anywhere??

Niftic said...

Dear Sudarshan sir,
I am a big fan of your blog entires.I have learnt a lot of trading rules from your blog.I am just curious to know what is the reason that you closed the short position at 4830 as the trend is down, so is the market movement.Should not we wait with a stop loss in these market scenario?

Regards.

Niftic said...

The market primary trend is down, so is the market movement today.What is the trading reason of closing the short position at 4830?

ANAS said...

Respected Sir, its me again....

the target given on the chart is 4284. Sir kindly confirm whether the target for this pattern is 4284 or the numbers were typed incorrectly.

thank you once again for your precious times...

Anas Elias Batla.
Kolkata. India.

Rushabh Shastri said...

just pray when nifty was 5600 who knew it will be 4800....at $56 will it come to 48....just can pray to god....

Rushabh Shastri said...

there is a one natural rule to speculation....when its too much high beware there is chance to come down....and dont afraid when its too much sold out...it will come down...this is specially true for NIFTY, NATURAL GAS AND POSSIBLE FOR $ TOO...hope for best..Investor must be happy when its massacre with the quality INVESTMENT INSTRUMENT...nifty I would put as first of it.