Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Markets in Decline

I have been bearish on the Nifty when it broke below 5300. A target of 5000 was set for the decline. On Monday, May 7, the Nifty fell to hit 5000. After a brief one day rally, the decline has resumed.

As I write this, world markets are falling. Suddenly, 'Risk Off' is the new buzz word. Not just equities, we have the precious metals also in a decline. And, commodities, with Brent Crude falling from 128 to 112.

Markets are in Decline.

This could be a deep correction, which is the most likely scenario. A correction of the up move from 4500 to 5600.

The less likely scenario is this: The rally from 4500 to 5600 was a correction in an ongoing bear market which started in November 2010 with the Nifty topping out at 6330. Now, with a descending triangle marking an intermediate top in the Nifty and Bank Nifty, the bear market has resumed.

There is no way to ascertain which of the scenarios will work out. What we should do is to follow the momentum. That momentum is down. So, stay short, avoid buying in such free falls.

2 comments:

Naran said...

I think the second scenario will workout. most of the world and Indian fundamental situations supporting my belief.

Unknown said...

dear sir
Rallies like yesterday must be used to sell into,since the assumption is that a downtrend is in place. But how do we catch such tops to sell into..Do we go by pivot,R1,R2,support trend line break etc..or wait for a swing high...just want to know from you..if there are reliable techniques to call it that a short term top is done and main trend resumes?..the conviction is very low,because these reversals give a false feeling that markets have reversed for good! !!!
your comments will be really helpful sir
regards kiran