Thursday, May 10, 2012

excerpts from book - Market Mind Games

Reality points to a very big gap between where the numbers leave off annd exceptional performance begins !

Logically , if you have a probability that you know will only apply for a limited period of time annd by definition that probability tells you that you have some signigicant chance of being wrong, even while it still applies, how much do you really know?

The truth is : PROBABILITIES TELL US SOMETHING  - JUST not everything.

Market performance emerges form owning the need to always be improving our judgment

We can't actually apply math or logic, let alone do other analyses, make judgments, or decisions, if we lack feeling annd emotion.

In fact, the only true thing we have to fear, at least when it comes to decision about uncertainty, is a complete lack of fear.

No matter how you analyze a market or a trade, noo matter what your timeframe, the only "thing" you are ever trying to deduce is if other market players will value the asset in question differently in the future.
Every single price at every single moment now and fowever will be only a perception nothing more and nothing less.

If the real question is , "What will other player's perceive in the future?" then quantitative analyses make sense in their right context - as clues but not as answers.

From the Book - Market Mind Games'

2 comments:

Nirav said...

Dear Sir,

I have just read a book named Trading In The Zone by Mark Douglas few days back. In that he describes trading as a Probability and emphasis that each trade is a unique outcome in the series of trades. So, basically he says that once you choose a trading system then you have to blindly follow that without any hesitation. Here I think there is no scope for the judgment(As Author says in the book).

Today morning I have read your article and now reading this post which is almost against the book that I have read. So, here there is a big contradiction between these two books. Please give some clarification if you have read the book Trading In The Zone.

Also I do not understand what you have written in earlier post that “I make a judgement call on likely market behavior, before the markets open. This makes it easy for me to use mechanical methods to trade during the day, since I know which side of the market / with what anticipation, I am trading.” Because if you are wrong on your judgement then you may lose very big trade of mechanical system and It may be very costly in the mechanical system profitability.

Please reply so it will help us.

Thanks.

Nivas said...

I bought 'Market Mind Games' after reading your post, half way through and I am enjoying the read. Thanks.