Wednesday, January 11, 2012

What does an NR7 suggest?

Nilesh points out that today was an NR7 day for the Nifty if Saturday's truncated session is ignored. He says that the dollar index is moving up, which taken with an NR7 should lead to a big move on the downside.

My Notes: NR7 days are signals of indecision. The market is undecided on it's next course of action. Since any active market cannot be undecided for long, an NR7 actually tells us that a big move may be coming which will emerge when strong hands decide on a direction.

But, how can we say that the big move will be on the downside. It can well be so, but we cannot say this. We have to let the market tell us where it wants to go. If the Nifty were to break below today's low, we will probably see a downtrend of sorts. Here also, there is A caveat. Tomorrow is Infy results and this could lead to short term choppiness. The break we a talking about should come after markets stabilize, post results.

11 comments:

Tomichan said...

i am undisciplined trader hence a losser today. And ultimately ends up taking a reliance 720 put. Some other man inside me directing me in some days. Loss in shorting hdil. Without stoploss. 75% loss. Am in a ... Whats the matter in following markets now! Being in a job, i can not focus after 10 am. In a period when i take leave for 2 months and was actively in market, got 10 percent every day without loss. That was defenitely larger and well above my salary. But certain matters tying me inside. I have to say to someone all this and so. That is what i doing now. No reply expecting and this may not be posted. My mind is clear now. Eventhough i expects a downfall, i don't know how much reliance will participate in it. A new nr7 and ...good night and salute master. Market will fall when everyone buying greed.

Tomichan said...

ever known about september 30 rule? No way because the rule was developed myself. The september 30 clossing defines the fate of nifty for the next (upto) 6 months. If nifty closses on september 30(i mean last trading day) higher than that of august 31 (again last trading day) close, the market will close above the september close on next december close. And there is a probability to close on 31 march next year higher than december 31st close. While the december clossing is a will, the march clossing has higher possibility. And the theory doesn't implies that after a higher sep30 close, every month is bullish. After the higher close, the october is undecided. Nifty can go anywhere. The next month december will be too bad for the market. But recover at appropriate time close the year above sep30. And a sharp dip in may next year is also is a will, i say.

now if sep close is lower than that of aug close, the following things 'will' happen. An undesided october (means it can be bullish or bearish). The nowember will be between slihtly negative to uppish trend. Dec close will be lower than sep close. And the last, a bullish may next year.

Then, is there any relation to as master quoted some on an older post "sell may sell november" (i forgot the exact lines, forgive me if i wrongly quoted.)?
We sees more bullish years often than bearish years. Bullish means high sept and sharp fall in may next year.the market offloading its excess fat in may!!
the coming may may surprise many with upward bias because the last one was a low sept...
i have made the theory by analysing nifty data since inception. Anyone can use it as desired. But not post this comment because 1. The theory is not an established one.2. It in any way connect to present market scenario except the confirmatiö that we are in a bearmarket.
The next september will tell us whether bear is losing or not.

Tomichan said...

pl. change the text - november will be too bad for market instead of december. (in sept high close)

mbn said...

Tomichan,
Trade eod TF.u don't need to watch mkt all day.
Have enough capital , don't use leverage. Returns will be less but u will stay in the game.think of loss as tuition fee to the mkt. Learn and earn.GOD bless u and happy trading.
Regards
mbn

as if you care..... said...

Nifty forming Hean and shoulder pattern.....top at 6400 and shoulders at 5400.......Can anybody confirm. Put support line for Head shoulder pattern at 4740 approx

Tomichan said...

tnx mbn..

LJ said...

hi sir,
Got the book and begin to read, completed first 2 chapters and the last one. the last one, chapter 5 is really an eye opener even though am trying to close my eyes towards the last simple point " expectation of your own income have to be based on the money invested and not on your own needs " its not allowing me to relax !!! your simple point making me responsible for all my losses &hear burn :( , I read the chapter 3 -4 times , am afraid that chapter will make me a business man ,rather than a dream (get rich quick- will become a billionaire in next 3 months ) trader. thank you very very much for including that chapter , as they say, dear Master. :)

LJ said...

Hi sir,

Got the book and read 1,2 & 5 th chapters, what to say , the last chapter the 5th one, after reading that i become sad, it has done 2 things to me ,

1. it wake me up from my dream world of become a rich man in short time, by trading.

2.now i become responsible for all my losses

now i have to think like a business man rather than a dream trader. Thank you very very much for including that chapter in the book, as they say, dear master.

LJ said...

sir

I go through first two three pages of the chapter 3 of the book, i have a doubt, can we use the same techniqs in shares, i.e do we can analyse ACC instead of NIFTY ? if we do so will we get same results ? or that principles only apply to nifty ?

Tomichan said...

i have successfully switched to banknifty 8700 put from reliance 720 put. If banknifty 8700 put at 500, my money will be back with me. Wait and see.

Rushabh Shastri said...

nifty should touch 50DMA, as well as RELIANCE due to result
21/01/2012