Tuesday, January 17, 2012

I am Never Sure

I have been suggesting remaining long for the past few weeks. This does not reflect any bias towards the bulls, it is just my reading of he charts. Th Nifty continues to hold support levels, breaks out from consolidation, keeps making higher lows - these are the signs of an uptrend.

Am I sure that the market will go up? This is the question that shabsaif asks:

"R u sure this time , your bullish call on NIFTY, there is any chances to fail again.

Last many days , you had been speaking on TV that you are bullish, today also again you said "Indian Market outperform"

So when NIFTY will touch 5000 or may be not...please confirm..Thanks"

 My Notes:

I am NEVER sure of any move. How can I be? If I were sure then I would be like the great Lord. And, that is not so. 

Trading works on probability. We have a number of trades, some of them make enough money to provide a net profit. Traders never know in advance the trades which will make money. 

11 comments:

sriram said...

Sir, In sidewsys market or range bound market it is not possible to trade in the index, then, how to select the stocks for short term. In general how to select the stocks for short term trading.

Akash said...

Hi, Sir My Query is Current bounce back nifty 4530 , bear market is over ? which levle indicate NOW "BEAR MARKET IS OVER ?GUIDE ME SIR.

Technotrader said...

Very Rightly said Sir "I m not sure"

Bashu said...

The only thing one can be sure about is that price WILL change.

If you want any more certainty like direction of price change or amount of price change then you are in wrong business.

Certainty comes with a salaried job. But it has its own problems!

Abhishek said...

abhi0810: Sir u r doing a gr8 job by teaching us what u have learned with ur many years of experience. Thank you

pradeep rajput said...

Sir: When the Rising Wedge pattern will be negated in this up move?

Thanks,

Tomichan said...

Not traded today. No positions at hand. India now responds to world markets positively unlike the recent past. The month concealed so many surprices in its wings. Is it the beginning of a new era in indian market? Master's call in this post has to be written in heart. We r nearing expiry and hence i am going to short (index or stock) when nifty hovers around 4980s tomorrow, if it happen so. But a fair chance is there (and time too since the reliance result gloom may affect market only from midday on thursday) to nifty to touch 5100 before reversal. Next friday is also us expiry. A reversal to 4500 and the return may indicate a bull run to 5200 plus level within a reasonable time. My target for nifty is 7000 plus if that upmove proves right. However, not probabily this year. As master told already, we are in a long term downtrend. Hence that downtrend can surprice u and drag the index to new lows. But here is easing monitery policy (expectation) to challenge that cause. Market, i think, always looking at tomorrow and not today to make a long term move. And we have far contracts in nifty to trade with the long term trend.
Salute master.

rajiv malik said...

namaskar sudarshan ji,

i really appreciate your honestly stating that you are not sure and it is a game of probabilities.

you are so honest, simple, straight forward and affectionate that i propose your name for the best analyst of the decade award. cnbc should honor you with this award sooner or later.

regards and happy 2012 !
rajiv malik

Bashu said...

I second what Rajiv Malik has said.

It is very hard to say "I am not sure or I don't know".

Sudarshanji,
Your sincerity is like a breath of fresh air.

AMIT said...

SIR IF BANK WILL OUTPERFORM MARKET IS THERE BANK NIFTY TO BUY ND NIFTY TO SELL FOR HEDGE WILL THIS STRATEGY WORK ?

Vasant kumar said...

u r awesome sir