Tuesday, January 3, 2012

DOJI, India, China and Thanks

First, my thanks for this comment  by mbn:

“Completed reading half of ur book. I liked it the way u tried to analyze wid out prejudice”

My post on the DOJI has evoked these questions by Nitin:

“1. Based on the DOJI and otherwise, do you see Nifty moving past 4800 in this series and where could the expiry be? 2. Does the DOJI suggest reversal of Bear market trend from a positional trader perspective”

My Notes:

The DOJI taken along with the NR7 and upbeat world markets tells us that an up trend may be starting. Once a trend starts (up or down) it can travel a lot of distance, so the Nifty could well cross 4800. I do not know if this will actually come about, but there is a fair probability. This is a DOJi that signifies the end of a minor down trend. It does not suggest reversal of the bear market. Bear markets end with lot of base building. We have not even started the process.

Unnath has some thoughtful comments on the prospects of a bull market in India, after we finish with the bear. He says

“….this year the Shanghai index has broken the previous lows made in 2009 and trading way below its all time highs. Similarly is it not possible that we see a rise in our market just because we fallen from 6300 to 4500 in 13 months and Nifty may come back and trade below 4000 or so for a long time like china is doing right now”

 

My Notes: Markets can do anything. For the Nifty to mimic the Chinese market will require (1) a break of the 2010 lows (we have done that), (2) A sideways range for 30 months (we are in the process of doing that, by mid year 2012 we will have achieved a range for 2 years).

For the Nifty to trade below 4000 for an extended period of time, we will have to see the Nifty fall to 3200 or near by. If this happens, 4000 will become resistance. Then a new range can probably develop below 4000. To me, this looks like an unlikely scenario. But, it is the Market which needs to decide.

11 comments:

Technotrader said...

Dear Sir,
Yesterdays movement was suggesting that the rebound is round the corner, so I covered my shorts of Larsen and HDIL. Sir in the last one year I am trading in F&O and it gave a pleasure to me that I am able to guess the mood of the market.Thanks for guidance as always

Umesh Kaushal said...

I have purchased your book last week, hope I will be on right track now
Umesh Kaushal

Yousuf said...

sir,
what is mean by "mbn" in your blog.also update daily nifty support and resistance with a small chart explanation. thanks
YOUSUF Kerala -994644943























red tube, pandora, limewire

Tomichan said...

nifty needs considerable support from its peers worldwide to break the 4800 barrier tomorrow itself. may be it a firecracker upmove. ie, 120 plus today, 80 plus tomorrow, 20-40 points the next one or two days and a reversal. We can smell it on friday and see it on following weeks. Sudarshan sir, as u commented on dlf on cnbc tv 2 days before, i am looking to take a short position on dlf after this uptrend with a target of 115. May be on friday. Also looking a target of 3930 on nifty without which, the target on dlf is impossible.
The current rally (to be continued) may be the last this month. The vulnaberality may be more and bottom oriented towards the last week. I have trades lot and knows the pulses of the market. But on the lossing side for the last three years. I hates technical analysis. so when technical analysis shown on tv or computer, i pay no attention to it. It is unbelievable (to me also) that i see sudarshan sir in cnbc in last december. Within a few days, i began to know the importance of technical levels. The problem was that i (a day trader, to say) was picking wrong stocks and at wrong time too without checking their levels. Like, on uppish trend, try bullish stocks only like educomp and tatamotors now. Before seeing sukhani sir, i will defenitely go after axis bank or reliance which may hurt you in an hour time. I means the uppish hours and not uppish days like this. But in an appish day also, the bullish stocks like educomp and tatamotors overtakes reliance and axis. Reliance and axis are good for short sell in tight markets. Frankly speaking, nifty can drag stocks like dlf, tatamotors and educomp to new lows. But reliance and axis can drag nifty lower. i owe this to sudarshan sukhani without knowing him, i could not have even thought of what i have wrote in the second half. Salute.

Pi said...

couldn't we look at the movement between 4600-5000 over the past 3 months as a basing pattern.. it might not be the end of it.. but maybe this is the base.. its just that as its developing we are not able to recognize it as the base.. Nifty similarly formed a base with large % moves up and down between Nov08-Mar09.

How would this be different? My first thought is that broader market was still falling and quite sharply at that till this recent low. But I think this was the case in 08-09 as well, that individual stocks kept on falling while Nifty developed a base.

Tomichan said...

Every one eyes on reliance(some positive news) and infy(result expectation and rupee depreciation) today. These two along with sbi(strong bullish trend) can make the nifty cross 4800 today or tomorrow. But I am awaiting some bad news within a week.

Neeraj Malhotra said...

Thanks for the useful post as always.

Reading your book since last week and found it to a unique book on the subject of stock market trading.

Its amazing to see few basic concepts (covered in the initial chapters) proving themselves in the rest of the book as these are applied during both bullish and bearish phases of the market.

Regards,
Neeraj

Rushabh Shastri said...

yes true....today 04/01/2012 nifty closes above 4725 and closes below 4800....this it self shows market is confused....IT-Tech index looks to give early sign of profit booking while...RELIANCE/BANK NIFTY is about to start base build....let us hope for the best

Tomichan said...

It was all positive for me today sudarshan sir. Yesterday also. As u pointed out, i haven't take a position in nifty.

Vasant kumar said...

Sir, I have purchased ur book and reading through it. But, Its not worth of 475 bugs....Ideal price would have been 200-250 bugs.... Dont take otherwise, I respect u a lot for the kind of heart u put for explainig the things...But, this was my opinion after reading through ur book...Most of the things u mentioned in the book are known to everyone.... Onething, I understood that its only ur practical experience and descipline which matters a lot than any books

AK said...

hello sir,
could you ( or any reader )please give title of your book..i wanna buy it..
thanks