Sunday, December 4, 2011

The Nifty Takes a View

A dull start to the day changed into a blistering rally after the first two hours of trading. In my earlier post, I had suggested that the nifty was at a point of decision. This turned out to be a good suggestion. The Index moved. up to cross 5000 and then 5050, all in half a day.

The short term trend is up, confirmed by price action which has seen a breakout of two seperate levels: 4900 and 5050.

Is this just one more bear market rally, or is this the start of a new bull market? This question is asked each time the market stages a dramatic rally. The answer is always: Let the market tell us. What we know is this: The Nifty is in a short term uptrend. If the Index retraces and the retracement makes a higher low, this will be the first sign that the trend is changing to up. Let us wait. Meanwhile, let the market show us where it wants to go.

9 comments:

SHAHAB said...

I am an avid reader of Mr Sukhani's view on Moneycontrol. I thank Mr Sukhani for his tips which helped me recover my loss going short on two three scips in this downtrend from 5400 to 4700.

Reading through Mr Sukhani's view over last few days, I feel that he is a bit sceptical about the upmove which market has shown since 30th Nov. At the starting of Dec expiry he has predicted that Nifty would close below the opening level of the first day of Dec expiry. I believe him in this. I dont think market is poised for a bull market rally. I would rather term it a bear market rally spreading traps for traders and investors. How can the market stage an out and out rally when the macro picture is so bad. The chart of Nifty for past few days shows resemblance to the chart of Nifty around 30th Oct. I personally feel the market would reverse around 5100 and go below 4500 in this series.

Disclosure for myself. I am holding short positions in VIP Industries @ Rs 120. Thanks to Mr Sukhani again for giving tips on VIP a week back. This stock is not showing any sign of rallying even when the market has rallied a bit. Thank you Mr Sudarshan Sukhani!

Shahab, a learner

Prashant said...

Sir,

Your stance was absolutely clear when the market gave a gap up from 4836 close to 5011 on the next day.
Apart from a shallow retracement, another confirmation of an intermediate term reversal will be a faster restracement of the last fall (from 5399 to 4639). The fall took 17 sessions, it should be retraced in lesser time. This rally is only 6 sessions old. There is a lot of time to scale 5400. As you said, let the market reveal itself.

Mouli said...

Sir,

On Friday (2nd December)when Nifty December Futures was around 5000 the stochastic and RSI was consistently above 85 and 75 respectively in 5 minute and 10 minutes chart and I went short at 5025, but it went till 5090. How to trade in such situations and avoid such mistake.

Anmol said...

dear sir
i have beenreading your blog for last three years .it helped quite good in improving my trading.i also watch your recomendation at cnbc tv 18.three days back you had given apollotyres as making HS PATERN but i am unable to find its stop loss.kidly clarify

Akash said...

Hi, Sir My Query Is After year 2009 , Market nothing any ware down or up,same levle down side 4650 to 6300 upside ,, indian market ""BIG BEAR MARKET "" is coming ??? all way range bound fust 5300 to 5700 onnifty after 5700 to 6200 nifty 2010 Diwali, after down side 6000 to 5600 nifty after fall 5600 to 5350 nity , now last lang 5450 to 4650 down side ,,, BIG BEAR OUR MARKET ??????

divyesh said...

Good Evening Sir,
i am very thank full to you as we can get experts opinion handy. even i had been through S2analytics.com. I am eager to download free trials but waiting for some reasons.
even you had done great efforts for technical analysts and formed a group. now a days what about that group...?
what about training ? there is no fresh programme ?
right now i am with Spider Irish, it has left 6 months...
till than waiting for best cooperation.
thank you.

Rushabh Shastri said...

Is there chances NIFTY come to touch 10DMA first, Then 200DMA?

Kirti Content Solutions Pvt. Ltd. said...

Hi Sudarshan Sir,

As a small time investor is it better to sit at the sidelines, enjoy the bank interest rates and wait for markets to take a direction or is it time to start nibbling at blue-chips?

Warm Regards
Madhur

Technotrader said...

Sir, have u have watched HOEC I think it is forming H&S at the bottom, huge increase in volume seen, indicators are also moving up and close above 135 with volume will confirm the pattern? Is is Ok sir?