This blog has been fairly consistent in calling the currently ongoing bear market. Once, 5200 broke down on November 15, a trading range breakdown was confirmed. Since then, the trend has been down. There have been a few rallies, but these are more in the nature of random movements which occur in any trend.
The previous low of 4640 was expected to offer only minor resistance. On Friday, December 16, we saw this previous low broken with ease, and the Nifty closed at 25 month lows.
The message is this: Just as new highs are bullish, new lows are bearish. The Market is making new lows which is bearish. A pattern target of 4000 is available, using the recent price action. (A head and shoulder has broken down. Chart not shown today, I will try to post it later).
Worries: From 4600 to 4000 is not a difficult travel. It is just 600 points. We have already fallen from 5200 on November 15 to 4600 – 600 points in a month. So, we understand that another round of selling can take us to 4000 or close by. The worries are elsewhere. Are we looking at levels lower than 4000? Any number of stocks are showing long term breakdowns on their monthly charts. Quite possibly, I am wrong in my interpretation. But, as traders we should be open to the basic fact: The markets can do anything.