Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Puzzled

Rajesh Agarwal writes:
Quote
m regulerly hearing u on ETNOW.
But this time i feel that u r not confirm to observe the momentom of nifty. when u told to LONG NIFTY, nifty going down, when u told u r bearish in nifty, NIFTY going bullish.

plz give a strong reading on nifty.
UnQuote

Yes, Rajesh, I have fallen in the trap of becoming biased. Luckily, this distortion has lasted only a few days so nothing much is lost. Over the last 2 days, at some point, ignoring the charts I came to the conclusion that the Nifty was going to go up. Had I removed my bias, looked carefuly at the patterns I would not have been so confident. For the past few months, my views on the Nifty have been fairly on the mark, and this probably led to the feeling of overconfidence.

The Market punishes people who start believing they are smarter than the markets. Going wrong in my analysis is my punishment.

The correct view was: the Nifty is in a downtrend which will be confirmed if the index closes below 5450. This is what I had said when the Nifty fell to 5450 on Monday, but somehow I got puzzled, confused in the next two days..

Now, as I write this: The Nifty range is between 5450 and 5540. A close below 5450 will tell us that the downtrend has resumed.Since the trading range is moving to the downside, it seems fair to expect that the markets will slowly drift down.

4 comments:

Rushabh Shastri said...

Sudarshanji, market is best friend of whom, who accept his mistake and follow the trend, I see you are doing the same, thats why you are with market for this much long time. Forget the charts for some time and lets look on fundamentals of the market

jigar said...

i think out of 10 trading days market makes day`s high or low in first hour, any observation on this, any rules

jigar said...

Mr Sukhani, Out of 10 tradig days market makes high or low in first hour, correct me if i wrong any theory, rules on this observations,

STOCKSJYOTISH said...

sudarshanji I am of view there will be last attempt upto 5480/5500level before touching 5200 again,it may be good time to exit rather than buying fresh