Sunday, June 5, 2011

Nifty - current location in its life cycle

Stocks go through a process of accumulation, realization (when the benefits of accumulation come about in the form of gains in prices), and finally, distribution when smart money sells out, wiating patiently for a corrrection and a new process of accumulation to buy. This is the Nifty chart, shown in the Bhopal ET-Now Beyond markets camp. I have been saying this on ET-Now for some months - markets are likely to correct before another rally starts. Reader comments are welcome. Also note the lower highs.


9 comments:

STOCKSJYOTISH said...

looking at HIGH INREST RATE SCENARIO...forget the chart for while, I also personally feel that MARKET IS SELL ON RISE THAN BUY ON DIPS...if offers better oppertunity to trade and earn money

mrpm2002 said...

hello sir,I am Pankaj from Bharuch (GUJ). I like your blog and read it today, because i have watched yesterday your programme "Beyond Market" on et now ,and note your blog add. all information are very interesting for me because i am learning technical analysis. Thanks a lot.

alphabet1 said...

3888 coming ?
by June 2012 or later ?

raman said...

"Your blog is really interesting".
I like your blog and read it today, because i have watched yesterday your programme "Beyond Market" on et now...

kittu said...

hi, i am arindam(age 20) from kolkata... the concept of accumulation realisation and distribution... is very convincing but is it close to absolute??

shrikant said...

Dear Sir,

Honestly i am a big Fan of you and watch ET Now,just because they show your trading cometary. I enjoyed your analogy of nature to Market cycles.

Bhavin said...

hi sudarshan i totally agree with your view on nifty it will correct surely my tgt of nifty are 5100,4750,4400 to 4500 nifty may settel here am i right i have calculated according to fibonacci
ritracement.bye thanks

vim said...

Dear sudarshan sir,

I watched your presentation on ET/Indore workshop..Your point on cyclic nature of market/stock and perspective on phases really helped me to grasp the market movement at macro/micro level..

My next query is whether to and how to trade positional Nifty SHORT..Should we do averaging or pyramiding ..i.e. should we build short position on every 50 point rise(as short term trend is a bit positive)..or wait until the nifty really makes it movement southwards..also, should we trade in june/july/aug

thnx
warm regards,
vimarsh p vasavada

oruaann said...

Sudarshanji,

I am an avid watcher of your analysis on ET Now.
I like the candidness and sincerity in you.

On the Accumulation Realization Distribution theory on the NIFTY, I have a couple of questions:
1. Should the distribution bring back the level to old Accumulation levels? Would it not be possible for the base itself is moved up higher because of accretion in value?

2. What if the the given period too is part of accumulation phase spreading over a span of 2/3 years? This would mean that another realization phase is waiting to happen?

Regards
Sudarshan (Namesake)