Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Silver - volatility is suggesting an intermediate top

I have been trading in Silver for many months. The uptrend was smooth with trading ranges, subsequent breakouts, then a range, then breakout ... almost a perfect chart. That has changed. In past five days, Silver has suddenly exhibited increased volatility, with almost bubble like moves. First, it dropped by 1200 points on the day Bernanke was announcing QE2. Then it started a rally that took it from 36000 to 42000 in just five days. Today, the white metal fell from 42500 to 39500. For all I know, it could rally again, but these wild swinging moves tell us: stay away, the end is near.

I have this theory: All markets correct. Therefore, a fresh large position in Silver is justified only when there is a large enough correction. But, markets do not oblige us by falling just because we want them to. So, we wait. Remember, waiting makes money.

3 comments:

rajiv malik said...

waiting makes money......waiting sukhani ji is the name of the game....perhaps you wanted to say this emphatically....

a said...

dont you think maximum money is made during a bubble..agreed that maximum money is lost as well when a reversal unfolds..but then the weekly chart of silver shows 31-32 dollars as target for the bullish cup and handle pattern.and when corrections are this shallow can we wait for a correction?

Trader Kirk said...

Yeah I agree...top on SLV is pending...there's another great post on it here: http://optionalpha.com/bearish-engulfing-candlestick-chart-pattern-in-silver-8673.html