Monday, November 15, 2010

Market forecasts

The bull market is not over.

That said: the easy money in the stock market has been made. The issues that confront investors are very complex now and the influences are truly global. Change will come rapidly and volatility will be high. We are in the post-crisis period, but the aftershocks of the crisis are severe and troubling. We believe that markets will continue to climb this wall of worry, as they usually do. We do not see any of the signs of complacency that characterize the end of a bull market. We do see an abundance of fear and uncertainty. Those characterizations suggest that stock prices can and will go higher.

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To think ahead, you need to start with historical perspective. If you are open-minded, accepting facts whether bullish or bearish, you must have noticed the positive changes in the last few months. One-by-one, the list of worries -- including recession, skepticism about earnings, the Hindenburg omen, political uncertainty, the head-and-shoulders pattern, etc. -- has been reduced.

Is it a world without worry? Of course not. The employment and housing problems remain paramount. If there were no problems, we would already be at Dow 20K. Potential investors who wait to act until all problems are solved will wind up buying at Dow 20K.

On balance, the investment world has become much more attractive. Meanwhile, stocks prices have only just regained the pre-Lehman levels of 2008.

-- Blog: A Dash of Insight

Bubbles

"The US monetary policies may be positive for Asia, but these policies could also cause bubbles in emerging markets via capital flows."


-- Marc Faber on QE2

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