In earlier posts today, I offered analysis by Dow Thoery Expert, Richard Russel who feels that we may be entering a bear market never seen before. He seems to be agreeing with Robert Prechter who is talking about Dow 400. (As I write, the Dow is at 10280).
Now, experts have been known to be wrong. (including this writer who is not an expert, but still gets it wrong, many times).
Suppose the Market does not quite fall but remains within a trading range. Or, the Dow inches up every year, touching 20,000 in the next 10 years (That is about 7% annual compounded growth - quite good). Or, productivity with innovation brings about big growth in the USA and the Dow actually touches 30,000 by 2020, with the U.S. markets outperforming the BRICS.
Or, maybe th U.S. Markets actually fall to 7500 Dow where they develop a base and then start a new bull market. It is also possible that Mr Prechter ay be correct, but there is always the possibility that any analysis can go wrong.
My Point: No one knows the future. What we have in front of us is the trend. Depending on yout time profile (day, swing, position, investor), follow the trend.