Tuesday, June 8, 2010

I am not bearish, I am actually quite bullish

Goldman sachs wants our money (yours and mine) but we do not have to give it to them. Note how a series of market experts come on TV and tell us to buy because 'fundamentals are good'.
Now, it is my money, which I wish to invest when there is good value in the market. A Nifty PE of 20 is NOT value for me. HDFC Bank at a PE of 25 is NOT value for me.Therefore, I am waiting for value to emerge in the markets. My technical analysis suggests that markets are ripe for a decline. If this is my analysis, then, as an investor I should wait for the decline to put in my money at fair value.



Suppose the market does not fall, continues to move up. So what? My money is still with me. I am getting 7.25% on it. I will not be a part of the rally so any gains beyond 7.25% will be foregone. Fine with me. I also know that markets correct regularly, therefore if I am patient I will get a correction to buy.

I am therefore bullish since I am a buyer. The difference is the price which I am willing to pay. If I think a product is overpriced and not worth for me, why should I buy it at that higher price?





8 comments:

kk said...

RESPECTED SIR

!!!EXCELLENT VERDICT!!!!

kk said...

RESPECTED SIR
VOLATILITY S&P 500 SEEMS TO BE MAKING HEAD&SHOULDER TOP. THIS SHOULD IMPLY DOW BOTTOMING OUT FOR THE SHORT TERM.

GOOD NEWS FOR ALL EMERGING MARKETS!!!

Manish.T said...

Why is Nifty ETF not so popular among traders in India?

Lakshmi Ramachandran said...

Sensible. Wait for the yearly sale

raja said...

sukhani sir,what an analysis sir.really hats off sir.im rajashekar and i follow u very keenly.we hope we get to know when is the right time to but on ur blog.plz give us technical supports at which we can invest sir.my id:grs_teju@yahoo.co.in

Nawal Kamboj said...

True ...Sukhani ji's approach to consider fundamental Analysis along with Technical Analysis is only the way.

Siva Sunku said...

Sudarshan Ji,
I have an account with ICICI, and am planning to sell NIFTY 5100 call options & to reduce the risk, I wanted to buy 5200 call.
Similarly, I want to sell 4900 Put & buy 4800 put. All options I am thinking for Jun expiry.

Ideally, I should have a margin of 10,000/- per 1 contract (Max loss for Call options can be 5000 & Max loss for Put options can be 5000).
But my broker is looking for 50K margin for whole set of these transactions.

Is every broker same w.r.t margin Or does it differ? Can you please let us know regarding margin amount in such scenarios.

Thanks Siva

sahil said...

Well I can predict by users KK's previous n todays comments in this forum that he is long n he hasnt used any stop loss. Now since many days he is convincing himself that markets would go up. Im amazed from his comments as m regular reader of this blog. User KK consider himself student of technical analysis n Your's but how he is convincing himself that nifty would go up by giving himself false consolations. Point is not that whether nifty would go up or down, rather how amatuers wants to read n watch the odds in their favor n ignore everything which is against them. Suppose If he wasnt long, would he give same logics to go long? We all know that wen we were new in markets, we did same. Bought shares, then when prices crashed, we focused only on those fundamentals analysts who say there is value , keep holding, it will bounce. Or when we developed a little, we began to study charts only in the favor of our current positions. It needs braveheart to admit if some1 is really long n now HOPING. HOPE is a 4 letter word that RUINS traders