Friday, May 14, 2010

Blog Scanning

I read a number of blogs. Here is a sample of current writings:

Politicians Can’t Change - The Market Is Preparing For A Credit Crisis! []

I believe that the highs of the year are in. We are in the early stages of the decline and fear is elevated. Traders no longer trust the promises that are made.
By late summer, the credit crisis will worsen and economic conditions will deteriorate. That is when we will see sustained selling.
Here’s how to profit from this sorry state of affairs. Short every failed rally. In the early going, take profits and expect snap back rallies. When those rallies become less frequent, you’ll know that investors are ready to throw in the towel. Major support levels will fall easily and that is when you need to hang on to positions. You can already start to buy long term options (4-6 months out) that are far out of the money (20% or more). Scale into these trades. Focus on companies that rely on credit (heavy equipment, banks, and consumer stocks). Any company that carries a lot of debt and needs cash flow (airlines) will be in trouble. Keep your long term put positions and add to them in coming months. Have shorter term capital available to get in and out of front month put options in the early stages of the decline.

Sarkozy, Ackermann, Volcker Weigh On Euro  []

In seeking further reasons to sell the euro, look no further than to the unlikely trio of French President Nicolas Sarkozy, White House adviser and former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker and Deutsche Bank chief executive Josef Ackermann.
First, Sarkozy apprently in a hot-headed outburst during last weekend’s heated euro zone negotiations threatened to pull France out of the euro zone. Not exactly a vote of confidence. Then Deutsche Bank chief executive Josef Ackermann said there are some doubts about Greece’s ability to repay debt.
Volcker provided the icing on the cake with remarks that raised big questions about the entire future of the euro. “Clearly, I think we have to say that the euro failed and fell into a trap that was evident at the beginning. I think Europe’s going to have to decide in the end whether to get more integrated or to get less integrated, in which case the euro is the question.”

The Rebirth of Regulation []

What do oil giant BP, the mining company Massey Energy, and Goldman Sachs have in common? They’re all big firms involved in massive plunder. BP’s oil spill is already one of the biggest and most damaging in American history. Massey’s mine disaster, claiming the lives of 29 miners, is one of the worst in recent history. Goldman’s alleged fraud is but a part of the largest financial meltdown in 75 years.
When shareholders demand the highest returns possible and executive pay is linked to stock performance, many companies will do whatever necessary to squeeze out added profits. And that will spell disaster – giant oil spills, terrible coal-mine disasters, and Wall Street meltdowns – unless the nation has tough regulations backed up by significant penalties, including jail terms for executives found guilty of recklessness, and vigilant enforcement.
After thirty years of deregulation, it’s time for the rebirth of regulation: Not heavy-handed and unncessarily costly regulation, but regulation that’s up to the task of protecting the public from companies and executives that will do almost anything to make a buck.

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