Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Returns and Wave Counts

What is a fair return on your investment in the stock market?

One measure of returns is CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate (Annualized Return). These returns can also be adjusted for inflation, but that causes more calculations. I would expect the Indian stock market to give about 20% CAGR (not adjusted for inflation).

Arvind Sahu provided two charts on the Nifty. here they are:

Today, he added the comment: "today's daily close on nifty, looking like bearish engulfing pattern which suggest this railly may not support till 5050 as i send chart on e.wave pattern yesterday.

as i am in learning phase and my moto is not to predict the target but the basic pattern which is running now, so kindly update my charts wherever u feel neccesary, before putting on blog."


men said...

Is this decline a buying opportunity for the next two years holding, and could you give us your choice? For the budget any suggestions and thanks for your update.

Tarique Anwar said...

Can you please check this "http://technically--speaking.blogspot.com/2010/01/nifty-competing-wave-counts.html" and check if any of these two are likely.. and also suggest what you think about them

TOOCOOL7610 said...

hi sir

i think that if we simplify elliot wave for monthly charts of nifty i would say that as market has already retraced more than 62 % of difference of the low and high of 1st wave (i think that low of 930 in 2003 and high of 6357 in jan 08 is a long term 1st wave , so subsequent correction ie 2nd wave, upto 2252 was more than 62% of this larger wave, thats why we are already in 3rd wave of a larger degree and this correction now we are witnessing is 2nd wave of this 3rd wave which would probably take nifty up to 4000-4200 , so i don't think that Mr sahu would be right on this one because theoretically he is right but market don't do exactly what people think it would do, actually in the light of the fact that there is tremendous interest of the world in to india and India's strong fundamentals which are based upon domestic growth there is hardly any chance now that a wave c will go below 2252, infact the abc correction on monthly charts is probably over and done with in october 2008 itself, sir your views will be greatly appreciated , and mr sahu kindly note my email id and contact me , we are like minded people should exchange views :-) bagai.bagai@yahoo.com


Manoj Isaac G said...


Does this chart give any clue for the today's trading direction?

Have you heard of effficient market theory, no future information in the prices etc

I think markets are totally random else chartist would be billionaires..

ravinder said...

hello sir,

i think wave count does not require to change any time frame, higher degree wave count can be visualised from the same chart, but the pattern must be visible. on the basis of % can not be concluded that correction is over and also fundamental or any hypothetical means no one can predict that market will do this or will not do that.
i dont find any wave count on weekly chart saying correction is over, rest sir please you explain

Swingtradingideas said...

Dear Sir,
I am giving you a link for a article by Dr. Y. L. R. Moorthi who is a professor at the Indian Institute of Management Bangalore.Hope you find it interesting


With Best regards

TOOCOOL7610 said...

hi ravinder

it looks you answering to my post so this reply is to you.

elliot theory says a b c waves in making normally retrace between minimum 38% to 62% for it to be called a normal correction , in nifty's case correction to 2252 was even more than 62% and in 3 wave(http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/fii-view/see-sensex-at-10000015-yrs-elliott-wave-intl_392738.html)not in 5 wave as told by mr sahu,and i would believe mr Mark Galasiewski as he is an elliot theory specialist more than any of us here, to me its a 3rd wave already , because in 3rd wave people start believing in fundamentals (few days ago i heard mr kamtat of icici bank that 8-9 % growth in india is a GIVEN now we should be looking at 13%-14%, most of other respected people of industry also think same ) and yes this thing is the part of elliot wave theory , so to me it all adds up, and mr sahu i think while counting waves you have broken the UNBREAKABLE law of elliot wave on daily charts as 4th wave dont go into territory of wave 1, i also am not convinced on other labeling of waves in daily charts , see, its because of its complexity of elliot wave i look only weekly and monthly charts for waves and also i am only a trader and can trade very well on intra charts , elliot wave holds only an academic interest for me except for some very critical points on weekly charts for example nifty i had predicted start of wave 2 of this 3rd wave sucessfully.and for me , to be called a normal correction nifty would go to 4150 atleast , may be even more who knows.


sahil said...

elliott wave is worthless, dont waste ur time on it. I knw u wont beleive me but sooner or later u guys will realise it

Pi said...

Hello sir,

Can you comment on gaps & typical mkt movements one can expect. Like today we saw a huge gap - probably a breakaway gap. How should traders - intraday/positional trade following such gaps. What has the market typically done in the past when one sees such gaps on an intraday basis & over the next few days.

Like one obvious thing which i did i booked profit on shorts in the first 1minute - got opportunity to get back in short 20 points higher. Advice/suggestions such as these.

thanks :)

kotesh said...


my question is not about TA. Its about fundamentals of corporate laws.

Why should any investor (small/big/FII) buy OMCs?

How can a majority holder(Government)of a company(OMCs) controls its profit and uses for his own benefits(public interest is nothing but government's benefit) and thereby looting minority holder's profits?

Isn't it against corporate laws?


rajamani said...

dear sir,

in an earlier post you had your ew counts saying nifty mat go to 6500 range then back to 1600

kindly post your ew counts in the blog


NRG said...

Dear Mr.Sudarshan,
I'm wanting to subscribe to the trade vinayak service that your company provides through Technical Trends. I was looking through the site and found that the data and information was very old, particularly the presentations from 2003-2006. Could you provide us with some latest information on the system and the latest payoffs and any further details please including the cost.
Could you also include details on the trend mechanic system.
Neha & Ravi.

mbansalicy said...

looking for your update.look like that we not received clue about market from a long time.

ANAS said...

Hello Sir, this is Anas Elias Batla. I hope that you are fine in your health &happy in your spirits. Just worried , as you did not appeared for a long time. How was your Last seminar. Thanks Bye.