Thursday, November 5, 2009

A small base is made

men asks "Why no updates, hope everything is ok"

My Notes: Thanks for the concern. I appreciate it. Everything is ok.


The markets are a wonderful being. Often, they behave almost in a textbook pattern. A sudden, sharp dip to 4550 brought the Index to the 4500 - 4550 zone we discussed earlier. What should be the enxt step? The market should provide a test of the lows. This happened today, when the Nifty suddenly fell to 4600. IIn the process, a small but visible bullish head and shoulder pattern was made in the hourly charts. The neckline was broken at 4700 approx - the point at which we should go long.  (We did!). The pattern target is 4850 approx.

Is this the real thing?

The question can be reframed thus: Will we see new highs again? The answer is: why worry about a future event. Focus on the present. The short term trend is up. Go with the flow.

If someone does not track the hourly chart, what is the signal that the markets are showing strength ?

Krishna says "You had wrote in the last article


"The first sign that the market has bottomed out will come when w have a higher low, bullish candles, for more than one day. You have to wait."

We have got two green candles..is it a sign of market bottoming out?"

My Notes: The asnwer is yes. Sinc the primary trend is up, the last two days tell us that the Nifty is showing signs of strength.

dineshrishi asked about articles on arbitrage.  I am not into the study or trading of arbitrage opportunities. have you trie to do a google search. It is my impression that the Markets and Google can do anything!


Jazz asks: "plz let me know the merits of becoming a member of Association of Technical Analysts. why should i choose this and not something like MTA or CFT ????"

My Notes: CFT is not a technical analysis association, so we can let it be. Now between the MTA and ATA, MTA is a society located in New York. ATA is located in New Delhi. Both offer certification exams. To retain your certification, you have to remain a member of the association. Annual membership of the MTA is $300 (Rs 15,000/-) while it is Rs 2,000/- for the ATA.  The MTA is not associated with any international organization, while the ATA is part of IFTA (International federation of Technical Analysts).

The first exams of the ATA will be held in end december 2009. I strongly urge readers to take the level 1 exam.

10 comments:

Manish.T said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
tushki said...

sir plz me the levels for unitech for next 2 months,...

kk said...

RESPECTED SIR,
THE LAST TWO DAYS HAVE BEEN QUITE INTERESTING,WE WERE DOWN 500 PTS,THEN UP 500 PTS AND TODAY ONCE AGAIN DOWN 300 PTS IN THE MORNING AND WHEN EVERYBODY WAS SAYING THAT YESTERDAY'S RALLY WAS JUST A PULLBACK AND WE ARE ONCE AGAIN IN THE DOWNTREND, MARKETS WENT UP AND NOW IT SEEMS THAT MARKETS ARE TAKING SUPPORTS AT PREVIOUS BEAR MARKET SUPPORTS AND RESISTANCE AT PREVIOUS BEAR MARKET RESISTANCE BUT AS WE BREAK THOSE RESISTANCE LEVELS AT 4700-4800,AND WENT UPTO 5200, SO THIS TIME AROUND ARE WE GOING TO BREAK 5200 AND HEAD HIGHER FOR 6200-6300 KIND OF LEVELS. I AM SURE THIS IS NEITHER A BULL MARKET NOR A BEAR MARKET AND NOT EVEN A RANGING MARKET ,THIS IS SORT OF A BUBBLE MARKET .SO MY CONFUSION IS THAT HOW TO TRADE THESE BUBBLE MARKET WITH A VIEW TO MAKE PROFITS AND ALSO CAPITAL CONSERVATION.SIR PLEASE EXPLAIN.

afzala.com said...

Sir how to find the trend in stonl is reveresed is t by candlestick or close above 5 ema
pls advise me

Bhavin Chotai said...

respected sir what are the job opportunities after clearing the 1st level or after clearing both the levels of ATA exams?

Prashant said...

dear sir, i m continous reader of your blog and really fan of yours.
i just wanted to ask, i have cleared CFTe level I exam. can I get exemption from CeTA level I?

nirav said...

Dear Sir,
As per my knowledge in technical analysis there are so many techniques like Swing Trading,Japanese Candlestick charts,Elliott wave theory and may be others and also supporting stuff like technical indicators.
So I want to know that out of this technique which is the most effective in stock market and which is the easiest to learn and follow?

gulshan said...

Sir,
I have a confusion about a chart pattern on nifty spot (5 min charts).

Starting on 24.09.2009
Ending on 26.10.2009
(by joining lows made on 24.09.2009, 06.10.2009, 09.10.2009, 22.10.2009 and tops made on 01.10.2009, 20.10.2009).

was a multiple H&S pattern
or
a broadening top pattern ?

Please specify some points of distinction between the two patterns.

Although it has already happened, but your reply will certainly improve my knwowledge.

Thanks

Gulshan

Rohit Sablok said...

If you'll look at the weekly chart of sensex, You'll notice that the MACD divergence is in the negative for the past two weeks.

Historically since 2006 there are only 5 negative phases for Weekly MACD and four out of the five times Markets corrected severly.

Since Weekly charts are in control of the market now, I think Markets will test much lower levels very soon till we come out of the negative MACD phase.

Care to throw any light on this matter, Sir.

dlmvikas said...

Sir how Distribution is plotted on a chart i.e how we come to know that it is in distribution pattern ? Give some real example.