Sunday, October 18, 2009

Start of a new Samvat

WISHING ALL READERS A VERY HAPPY DIWALI

Anshultpt asks if Saturday's truncated trading session should be considered in analysis, and, if so, in what way.

My Notes: I use these sessions in my analysis for two reasons:

First, the data goes into the database, so all scans, programs will consider the data. Trying to avoid these dates will result in complicated programming and not worth the effort,

Second, The markets did throw up a price, so it should be considered.

I use the Diwali day as a normal bar. Some analysis is ignored, for example, the day is normally a narrow range day, but that is not relevant due to the truncated trading times.

I think, there are no rules as such. You decide on a procedure, then follow it consistently. Consistency is more important.



Krishna asks: "I had heard you saying that sugar stocks are ready to go much higher from current levels whereas previously you advised to be cautious as it seemed to be a bubble..any reason for change in outlook.."

My Notes: Sugar stocks had seen a parabolic rally, moving up 4 times in 10 months, outperforming the broad market. Then. resistance at previous highs suggested that the rally may be ending. But, the stocks broke through resistance, and the trend should be assumed to be up.



Notes on the broad market:
I have a chart, which suggests : maybe and maybe not.










5 comments:

Sri said...

Sir,

Happy diwali to you!!!


We recently had a breakout from the 4920-5080 range. The recent high is ~5150, does a ~70 point movement from the breakout need a correction?

Since we continue to closely mimic Dow, I believe the mood for next week would be set by the results from Apple, which would be announced on Monday after Market [US].

Regards,
-Sri

Prakash Wasudeo Dandekar said...

Mr. Sudarshan,

Happy Diwali to you too.

I was just curious to know whether there is any simple tool available freely on icicidirect.com or on any other portals where I can check the ratio of movement of any stock /movement of any index, over the same period.

People call some has high and low beta stocks. I do not know how they calculate beta, but this seemed like a basic method of calculating whether a stock moves rapidly with ref to index or slowly, and if so then by what times? secondly I am sure beta is not a constant but stays constant over short period of times. So it pays to plot beta for a year's duration.

Pleae iluuminate. I am a beginner.

-pwdandekar

men said...

Dear Readers,
Dow cracked on Friday and recovered on Monday, and we were closed on Monday and some people got the advantage of taking positions on SGX, just check up how many times this has happened in the last one month, is this a pure coincidence or......
In a down trending market if we have a holiday the DOW goes up only to reverse the gains one day before we are open thus giving some undue advantage. HOPE TO HEAR FROM OTHERS ON THIS.

Shazia said...

Hi
@ men
I am also very very surprised by this and have also spoken about it to a few people, guess i think we are just plain lucky, but today the reverse has happened for us. i think the markets are playing with our psychology.
@ Sir
What do you make out of the weakness today amidst strong global cues and also since the dow has crossed 10k we havent been able to go up much...
Thanks
Shazia

TOOCOOL7610 said...

dear sudarshanji

i have a simple question that on ur shown 60 min future chart i think its cci indicator is used by you sir, but with what settings and do you change settings frequently?? what i mean to ask is that do u change setting in accordance with the difference in 2 latest high or lows on 60 min bars all the time as these high lows bars keep changing???

thanking you