Sunday, October 4, 2009

Conversations Oct 4

Lalit writes "Just wanted to ask u up that do u have any office of urs at Chennai or any such plans to have so.".
My Notes: Thank you for your interest, Lalit. You should complete your CA before taking the plunge into trading. As for an Office in Chennai, now with the virtual world, anyone can work from anywhere and still be connected.

Pi wants to know where I get the data for Tradestation.
My notes: I use ts2000i, which I purchased from Omega Research in 1999. Since I wished to use it for intraday as well as end of day analysis, I developed the appropriate data for it. Technical Trends offers intra day feed that goes directly into Globalserver making TS2000i into a live charting system.

For Gurvinder - thanks.

Wildeazoscar asked "A question on the basis of your being associated with the ATA---"What are the job-prospects of a person with the CFTe certificate (not MFT) in India?"
My Notes: CFTe is not a job seeking certification. The certification confirms that the candidate has an indepth knowledge of technical analysis. In a few years, this will probably become an essential requirement for TA jobs (I hope!).

Wildeazoscar says - On second thoughts----" if someone in a secured career with an active interest in trading wishes to take up trading as his source of subsistence by quitting his job(which is nowhere related to any trading activities), would a CFTe certification help him earn a job, if after some period he wishes to work and at the same time trade?"
My Notes: Technical Analysis jobs depend on the requirement of analysts, and is directly influenced by market conditions. Bull markets mean more employment, another recession will mean death of brokerages / funds. If there is a job opening, then a person with a CFT will have a substantial edge over another applicant who just 'knows' TA.

Readers have offered different wave counts which are available in comments Here

My Notes on the use of Wave Counts

I started this process a few days ago when I offered a possible wave count for the Nifty. Since then, readers (who are likely to be more knowledgeable in Elliot Waves than I ever will be) have offered to share their own wave count posssibilities.

I am certain that wave counts will often fail or go wrong. The sensible EW trader will then accept that the count is not working, and, correct or amend the wave patterns and come up with a fresh count. This is what I do with momentum. A failed wave count is a whipsaw, isn't it? Just as with any kind of trend following methods. Since trend following is a mouthful, I call this 'momentum' which is easier to understand and relate to. Therefore, a Elliot Wave Trader is really a momentum trader, keeping losses small, catching trends and accepting whipsaws. The difference is in the tools used.

But, there is another kind of Elliot Wave trader who really believes in the forecasting nature of the waves. This is a dangerous breed, to be kept away from. "My wave counts tell me that the Nifty is in a fifth wave extension which will take it to 6567 and then bring down the Index to 1182." (added: this is only a theoritical example). Now, no matter what the market does the person is fixed on his numbers. I have met many of these people, some of whom put their own and others money on their numbers. All of them fell in deep trouble, more than we can imagine.

In 1995-96 when we (myself , also a number of friends) were just starting in the amazing world of technical analysis , I was terrified of Elliot Waves. I did not understand the complexities of the wave counts. I was amazed at friends saying "The sensex will have to touch 3750, because it is in an A-B-C ...... and this is the C wave which is bound to do .....". What wonderful talent - the ability to predict the future with perfection. I was saved from participation in the elliot wave talent contest since even then I preferred methods that said, the market is doing this, so let us follow it. My freinds using EW said, the market will do this.

I think I have made my point. Cheers!

9 comments:

suseem said...

great thoughts mr.sudarshani totally agree with ur views.
many people who want to prove their t.a. prowess say the "mkt will" do this and sucessful guys say "i will" do this bcoz this mkt is doing this.
ist it easier to go down stream than going upstream just to prove a point.
TA as a subject is evenly balanced bet psychology and application of knowledge.
i hope to meet you one day as ur my guru.i think the market has weakend considerably but i would be long as long as 4850-4900 breaks before liquidating longs,i might lose 200points from the top but this could just be a dip till 4850-4900 is taken out.i am too small and too dumb to be predicting the exact values so its better to follow simple ta than complex ta
cheers

B M Kajaria said...

Hello,

Sensex and Nifty had average Retracement of .618 from January 2008 highs to October 2008 and or March 2009 lows. Which completed the end of Bear Market downfall / Truncation.

Mind Without Fear said...

I have a hard time understanding EW theory and its predictions.

That may be my own limitation. Others those who understand it may use it especially if it generates profit for them.

For myself, I intend to stay away from EW theory and predictions all together. The reason is simple and personal. I feel very unsafe to use for my trading anything that I have no understanding of.

CHANDU said...

Sudarshan ji.

U used to create small videos regarding technicals.if u can come up with advanced technical indicators which can give more insights for TA like us.

Best regards

Aurobindo said...

Thanks Sudarshan.

gurvi said...

Hello Sudarshan ji,

You are most welcome :)

men said...

Mr. Sudarshan, just now 1435 hrs you said that we have not broken down wrt dow, but the sgx i think traded @4980 odd on Friday, had we been opened we would have also tanked, thas has happened on 21-09-2009 (Ramzan) and on 18th dow tanked only to make up on the 19th thus providing undue advantage to some. Just observe the dow when we are closed that day it takes a move in the opposite directiion only to reverse it the next day, this is what I have observed 7/10 times. Even on the ADR's it happens.
Regards,

Manish.T said...

Idea cellular has been underperforming the market in the recent past, in fact if I am not wrong it had a breakdown today. Still you recommended to buy it on dips. Why?

G.S.Dhillon said...

mr sudarshan, finally after many weeks or may be after many months i liked ur post, i really admire ur fresh post from my heart. Everthing u told is true more abt EW nad also abt other constituents of tech analysis.We should follow market and change our trades as soon as possible