Thursday, September 17, 2009

Wave Counts for the Nifty

Here is a chart showing a possible wave count for the Nifty from Otober 2008 when the lows were made. We may be in the fifth wave of the up move - the last wave. But, where will it end? The targets are shown on the right, with black lines and the label - wave 5.

Which target will be met? We do not know in advance. When the Nifty starts rolling over, and begins to make lower lows / lower highs (preferably at one of these levels), then the first indication will come that the fifth wave targets may have been met.

Your views are welcome.

Added soon after: I have set up a poll (see the right column). Please participate since it gives everyone an idea of current opinion. I will publish the results after the poll finishes on Saturday, 9 AM.


B M Kajaria said...


The elliot wave principles applied by you are not correct. So please first follow the right principles while drawing the wave pattern/trend line in the nifty chart. They are as follows.

1. Wave 2 cannot retrace more than 100 percent of wave 1.

2. Of waves 1, 3 and 5, wave 3 can never be the shortest.

3. Wave 4 can never end in the price territory of wave 1.

B M Kajaria said...


In the chart the wave 1 and 2 that you are showing is the consolidating area of the nifty where it is building base from where a new wave starts only on 9th of march 2009 as per my opinion. May be I may be wrong. So please answer my comment on your blog.

zia said...

sir why you choose 3500

Sanjeev said...

I think you are using this vote as the last(ultimate) technial indicator which one can't find in any book.

men said...

Mr. Sudarshan, if the Nikkei can go from 40k to <10k from 1980-2009 why not we? Also you should consider there will be some people who have SEEN 2 SCAMS/Bear markets, the one's visiting your site MAY NOT HAVE seen even one.
Also on 15-02-2007 nifty was 4165.7 and INR WAS <40 TO A USD, now nifty at 5K INR IS approx 47-49 to a USD, the reason given THEN WAS the INR is becoming strong due to INFLOW OF THE USD then why not now? Which clearly shows some mismatch hence I feel that 3500 will come some day BUT WHEN I DONNO.

men said...

PS. I forgot to add, that I am not suggesting that any scam/bear is round the corner, only people would be a lot more careful.

Danish said...


I don't agree with the wave counts. Although, we are near the top but these wave counts are not according to the rules of Elliot Wave or Neo Wave. The wave labelled 2 should be wave 5 of the correction which started in Jan 2008. It was wave 5 failure that ended above the low of wave 3.

All said and done, it is really how one manages the trade rather than counting the waves.

Danish Kapur

Shazia said...

I think the point where the count should start is from March low.
what is your opinion on the poll you have published, kindly let us know your opinion also.

Viral Rajnikant Dholakia said...

Dear Sir,

Do u subscribe to the view that the Technical Gap left on the charts Post-Elecetion Rally needs to be Covered-up by markets sooner or later?

They say... Markets have to cover gaps, irrespective of Time factor consumed.

We had a gap around Nifty 3600-4200 odd... out of which 4200-3900 gap is already filled during Mid-July -- effectively large Nifty 3600-3900 Gap still remains unvisited.

Sir... I am sure you're aware about it, just wanted to know whether you SUBSCRIBE to this Technical thought?

kaps said...

My Elliot wave counts are different. And my calculation says that we are undergoing A-B-C irregular flat correction since june12,09.The ensuing C-wave of the correction should take the nifty to 3500-3600 by around this Diwali.After this should begin the 3rd wave of the uptrend (weekly basis) for nifty for possible target of 5500-6000 by january.
Please give yr comments.

Kapil Gupta