I think the title of the post reflects the question which is uppermost in the minds of most readers.
The Nifty moved in a trading range, 4350 to 4750 and then broke out closing above 4750 for five successive days. The target for this breakout is 5150. Will the Nifty make it?
As usual, the first point is simple: The markets will do what they want. So, making learned comments on where this breakout will go does not matter at all. No matter what I write and analyze, the market will not do what I say.
Then, why should I even try to answer this question? Okay. I will not even try.
A more relevant question is: given a breakout from the trading range, how should traders setup their positions in the coming days. I will answer this one. Again this is my analysis, and, could easily go wrong.
1. I do not argue with breakouts. Price tells us that after remaining undecided for many days (trading range), it has come to a decision on the direction. The trend is UP.[additional notes: volume, long term trendlines may affect the actual outcome of this breakout. But we will know this affect much later when the breakout either succeeds (did not affect) or fails (did affect). In either case the information when it is finally received cannot be used for action now. So, I choose to let it be, just focus on the price.]
2. When will the breakout fail? A tight small range was made with a low around 4570. This is my level for a sign that the trend may actually be turning down. This is for the trend, not for stops.
3. For Swing traders, a pivot low was made at 4780 approx. So far the Nifty remains above this number, assume that the short term trend is up, buy on dips. A break below 4780 will only signal a short term downswing, which you may or may not like to trade because it will be a correction. But buying should then be avoided till a pivot low is made.
4. For day traders, there is always the desire to sell at the high of the day. My suggestion is: avoid this impulse, and, see 3 above. Buy on dips and on consolidations. You can use simple rules to determine if the market is likely to move down. Then of course, you do not buy.One way is to stay away if the Nifty is trading below the low of the first 15 minutes. Or, if the Nifty has made a big gap up. These are stay out of trouble ideas. If the Nifty remains below the low of the first 15 minutes, moves down then builds a base in intra day charts, that may well be a buying opportunity even as price is below the lows of 15 minutes. So always have an open mind.
It helps a lot when you are aware of the direction in which you want to trade.
5. For position traders who wish to buy stocks, remember that stocks have a momentum of their own. The trend in the Nifty (up) allows us to buy, but the individual stock chart should not be in an 'overbought' position. Buy on dips / after a consolidation.
I will try to answer questions in a later post. Have a good weekend!