Saturday, September 19, 2009

Forecasts for the Nifty

The two forecasts came in the comments section. Thanks for sharing.

Danish says:

"I think this is the first wave of the larger up-move, if we go by the price behavior. Also, we are in the fifth wave of that first wave and chances are again that the fifth wave will fail rather than completing its logical target because time-wise we are already there. Also, major world markets are running out of steam but I don't know whether that will have any impact on Indian markets or not. But once the correction starts, it won't end soon."

Kapil Gupta (Kaps) says

My Elliot wave counts are different. And my calculation says that we are undergoing A-B-C irregular flat correction since june12,09.The ensuing C-wave of the correction should take the nifty to 3500-3600 by around this Diwali.After this should begin the 3rd wave of the uptrend (weekly basis) for nifty for possible target of 5500-6000 by january.Please give yr comments.Regards

Just to complete this forecast, let me refer to Charles Nenner.

I watched Mr Nenner's interview with CNBC America in Feb 2009. He was saying the the S&P is bottoming out and we will see a rally that will take the S&P to 1000 in just a few months. At that time, the index was around 700, pessimism was around us, so this forecast sounded like fantasy. Then Feb came and went, no rally. The bottom was made in first week march, and the subsequent rally did take the S&P above 1000.

Mr Nenner again appeared on CNBC America on Sept 9. He said "The market is following the 1937 bear market when there was a similar rally. The U.S. market will top out in mid October after which the previous lows will be revisited. Gold will continue its up move, top out by Feb 2010.". That's it.

My Notes: Given below is a chart for the Nifty wave count starting from March. I feel that the October 2008 start fits the wave counts better. Have a look. Meanwhile, please remember that we are at 15 month highs. I have two points. (a) The 10% gains of the past 10 days are unsustainable. We will see a consolidation or dip as the Market removes this excess. Such markets are difficult to trade. But staying with the trend (up) should help. A close below the lows of the last 2 days - 4931 will be required to change the short term trend to down. (b) A correction of the entire up move from 2200 to 5000+ will surely come. We do not know when.


Viral Rajnikant Dholakia said...

Dear Sir,

Query: Technicalities of 'Mat Hold' Indicator

1) Do u see formation of a rare 'Mat Hold' Bullish Reversal Indicator in the stock of IDFC, if we consider the pattern of last 5 days of trading sessions?

IF YES, is it necessary (in the formation of Mat hold pattern) for the 5th Day closing to be Highest among the last 4 days' closing?

Or is it enough for the 5th Day closing to simply close above the bullish 1st Day close?

Usually, the 2nd day's Opening is Gap-up above 1st day's Closing only to End the day lower with a 'Black' Candle Stick.

So, is it necessary for the 5th Day's closing to be above All 4 day's price levels or simply 1st Day's closing levels ??

Lastly, can we say that an Ascending Triangle pattern is also developing on IDFC with upward Resistence at Rs.147/- mark ??

So, in last effect, can we conclude that a bullish breakout can be expected above Rs.147 closing ??

Sir, sorry for an elaborated query... but, from what I have heard -- Mat Hold is a Rare pattern with 'High Reliability' factor. This prompted me to confirm the same with you.

Would be greatful if you can approve or disapprove my Views on IDFC & Mat Hold; irrespective of the pattern developing or not developing on this counter.

I have shown a Chart discription on my blog for better clarity:

men said...

Mr. Sudarshan, this home page is not opening easily, I nearly have to try 3-5 times just to get access to this page, are the others also facing a similar problem here?
Also give us what you voted for on the nifty touching 3500.

Sunil said...

Mr sukhani

Cud u pl help me in confirming my view that whatever was a major resistance, will prove to be major support once the resistance is crossed.
I have raised this query because from nifty daily chart since jan 08, it can be observed that nifty faced resistance @100DMA on four occasions and was never able to close above it after jan 08 meltdown till mar 09. Similarly 89EMA on daily charts proved to be resistance on couple of occasions. This turned out to be support @3900 appx in jul 09.
Hence, logically, my view is nifty sud take support of 100DMA atleast once, if not more.
Your view would be of immense help to guide me thru.

men said...

Viral, IDFC is getting into the nifty probably from Oct'20th, hence there could be interest from the Index funds. JP Associates is another Co. which gets into the nifty.
Mr. Sudarshan could you give your views on these two stocks, especially the probable targets, and thanks in advance.

gaurav said...

I agree with Sudarshan Sir with with a little modification:

1.Acc to my analysis I had marked wave 1 as the high formed Just before elections also which helps in supporting that wave 1=wave 3 .

2.One can easily count the 5 wave upmove in wave 1 with fibonacci targets met too which supports this as wave (i)=wave (iii) and wave (v) is 61% of (i)st wave.

2.There was an interview from a guy from Elliot wave International Asia Pacific a week before elections he said that first wave is complete and we should see a correction as wave 2 but it happened as a small correction only which supports this hypothesis too.