Thursday, July 16, 2009

Confusion in the U.S. markets

On the state of the American economy and stock market, there are completely divergent points of view in the blogs that I read. Here is a sample:

Forbes economist Gary Shilling says that the US stock market is going to crash. He says "For the next 10 years, we're going to have chronic deflation". He suggests buying the US Dollar and Treasuries (Govt bonds).

Daniel Gross, writing in Newsweek says "But in this season of doubt, I'm prepared to declare that the recession is really, most probably over."
Because "two of the best and most objective forecasters, who are not connected to investment banks or to the CNBC noise machine, have recently called the upturn. ". They are (1) Macroeconomic Advisers, and (2) Economic Cycles Research Institute.

Bloomberg -- Crude oil will collapse to $20 a barrel this year as the recession takes a deeper toll on fuel demand, according to academic and former U.S. government adviser Philip Verleger. A crude surplus of 100 million barrels will accumulate by the end of the year, straining global storage capacity and sending prices to a seven-year low, said Verleger, who correctly predicted in 2007 that prices were set to exceed $100. Supply is outpacing demand by about 1 million barrels a day, he said.

A long term bullish (inverted) head and shoulder pattern in th S&P500 with a neckline around 955. The blog says "This is the one the bulls like. It clearly supports the notion that most of the bad news has already been priced into the market, the rate of decline has moderated, comparisons against prior year are improving and that the effects of the economic stimulus package (a.k.a., massive government deficit spending) will start showing u"
Inverted (bullish) head and shoulder in the S&P500

The online edition of the Wall Street Journal says that "The Economy Is Even Worse Than You Think ".


men said...

Mr. Sudarshan,
I need your advice, I am thinking of taking a calendar spread on the mini up to 10 positions building one at a time on a difference of say 100 points, on paper this looks like a win win situation, provided one starts around 4200,and the nifty stays b/w 3300-5200.
The method would be to book profits on the plus side irrespective of the technicals, do you think this would work? Please comment

Pi said...

wow.. first two strong days followed by a very strong trend day followed by another breakout day above a key resistance zone on the s&p...

we are definitely headed higher..momentum will now take this mkt higher.. probably higher than 4700.. maybe much higher.. as it is a failure of one pattern (H&S) leads to a very strong movement in the other direction as ppl rush to cover their positions..


PS - for all who remain short run for cover cover cover !!!