Friday, July 31, 2009

Big Bull or just a little bull

Hat tip to Saurabh for pointing out Mark Hulbert answering the question is-the-bull-market-cyclical-or-secular?
Mark concludes: The bottom line? Only one of the seven foundations of a secular bull market is in place. Three more are neutral, and the remaining three are bearish.
Davis therefore concludes that we are more likely to be in a cyclical rather than secular bull market.

It is wise to be aware about different view points. I am not referring to the current rally as a bull market. I talk about an uptrend, which it is. My concern is: bull markets start slowly, but this one roared ahead.

G S Dhillon provides a method of identifying targets for stocks making new highs. His comments can be read here . It is possible to make Fibonacci projections for targets when you have a swing low and high on a chart. But what happens when you have new highs, so there are no swing points to refer. Gurvinder suggests that you use the five day high and low as the swing points. Excellent suggestion. Thanks.

microashsish asks "i what know abt gann-square of nine how it works is it feasible in indian market"
My Notes: I think you shoould start with Google search. Many software packages provide this tool and their web sites may also have some help. I am not sure how it works. To the question: is it feasible in Indian markets: my answer is: everything works in all makets. You have to use every tool in alignment with the trend or momentum, understand price flow and practice strict money management.

What of the Indian markets today? Well, the US markets did not sustain their intra day highs. We may well open higher (as the SGX Nifty + Asia suggests), but at higher levels we could easily see the kind of profit taking that the US saw yesterday, so careful at the highs.

3 comments:

Ajay Khandelwal said...

Quantitatively,Secular or cyclical differ in their time spans. Could we, therefore consider 500 DSMA and 200 DSMA to be providing a clue.

Incidentally, both 500 & 200 DSMAs have started to slope upward about 10-15 days back.

Nifty is currently above both. Infact 200 SMA is at 3382!

technicaladviser said...

all the major sectors are showing increase in momentum including the autos real estate and banks .adx is rising frm 15 to 30 and hence one should be buyer on dips .and with such collective movement nifty is poised for much higher levels .s&p closing above the levels of 950-960 for two continuous weeks shows buying appetite in the US markets TOO.

Junaid said...

i have seen most of the US analysts using TICK, MARKET DELTA AND TAPE readings to identify the direction. Could u plz explain what these indicators are all about and how to use them if at all we can.???