Monday, June 1, 2009

Just one more day in the office - Nifty up

Cup and handle in the Nifty

I received an excellent email two days ago. I could not post it beause the sender created an email identity that should not be published. Today, I copy/pasted the contents:

"do u see cup and handle formation in the making...?? if so nifty shud retrace a bit in june....i.e formation of hadle which takes 1-4 weeks....and then a huge breakout on the upside...this is a very bullish pattern....if nifty manages to break 4650 which is the right side of the peak of cup with gud volumes(heavy volumes a prerequisite in this pattern).......typically in this period of handle formation volumes would dry down......what do u say"

My Notes: I say your analysis is very good, and, a likely scenario. With every passing day, it appears that this market will go up with a big bang, higher than we imagine. We would like to hear more from you, but, please have a printable email identity.

Master of the markets

Ajay Singh wrote about a likely scenario for this market in end of april. Here is his post: http://www.sudarshanonline.com/2009/05/sell-in-may-not-this-may.html
He seems to be getting a perfect 10/10 in his analysis of the market and his prediction of a big move in the Nifty going all the way to 6000. Great, Ajay. All of us look forward to hearing from you soon.

Here is a message for 'men':

I welcome all comments. I read them, I try to answer at least some of them. Please continue to write.
Meanwhile, mem in comments says:
"JUST GIMME A DIP LEVEL TO ENTER THAT IS ALL"

My Notes: the purpose of writing this blog is to share my experience with fellow traders. Going by the comments that come in, I think many of us share the same concepts about the market. Markets are dynamic. They do not provide 'levels'. I think this is the message I have been trying to spread around since I started writing this blog. So, how do you enter the Market? You can enter now, hoping that this momentum will continue. Or, you can wait for correction, and the correction can start now going down to 3800. OR, the correction can start at 5500 and go down to 4800. It is your decision.
Dear mem, the markets do not work in the fashion of 2+2 = 4. You have to understand the flow a well as the behavior of the market. The market will corect when it wants to. Who am I to say what and where it will go. This is what I said on CNBC, in the blog and I am repeating it again.

I am responding to mem's comments since it is important to understand what the market does and our own limitations in what we can do. Most readers, I feel, are now understanding it. But repetition is always good.

7 comments:

CHANDU said...

Well said sir,regarding the purpose of the blog.In the next correction retail investors will flood in to the markets to invest.

I think 5200 is the last leg of this move.

As of now US markets are roaring amd s&p well above recent high and 200 DMA.

Tomorrow we may directly open at 4600.

Thank u sir for this platform,where we can share our thoughts with u.

Rajneesh said...

sudharshanji-- this may be a stupid question-- but which trading software are available for the indian market? please help since i am lost.

men said...

Mr. Sudarshan,
Thanks for your reply.
Now that most stocks are >200dma's by 5-20%, what should the stop loss for these stocks, and how should we go about it?
Secondly when using RSI, what gets precedence the stock price or the RSI? For eg. price goes up and RSI comes down and vice versa.
Regards,

Tushar said...

Well in Bullish scenario all news/feelings are bullish and vice versa.
While Lehman Brothers went bankrupt markets panicked.
Now GM goes bankrupt markets are filled with euphoria.
Well a bankruptcy is a bankruptcy at end-of-day.
So u cannot go by news.

Rajesh said...

Dear Sudarshanji,
Today in the Ranbaxy chart you have mentioned a formation of NR7 bar. What is the meaning of the same? I have not been able to find any reference of the same in any previous practical technical analysis blogs.

Regards
Rajesh

Mohit said...

sir,
today was a perfect"4 day magic" for the swing trading presentation you gave.Last four days were up days with yesterday close up by almost 2%.The mkt did the 2% down today before climbing back.Good profit for those who did not get too greedy and quit at 2%.

anshul said...

people should understand most of the technical analyst on cnbc r trader too..as a trader keep focous to make money let the analyst do analysis ..trader job is to make money...no analyst can give 100% accuracy because market doesn;t move with given script....levels should be used as resistance or boost in a bullish/bearish trend....no levels r holy grail...people like sudarshanji have sum trading method system which gives them profitable results even if they loose 50% trading bets...plzz trade with sum money management ...trade with plan...