Monday, June 15, 2009

Analyst comments on TV

Gurvi says" surprised by your comments on Friday.You said to go long on this market....but from last few days you're saying to go short(every rise is an opportunity to exit)."

My Notes:
This was on Friday morning. The Nifty had opened at 4650 and number of technical inputs suggested a rally to 4700. The question on CNBC was: what should the trader do now: I said, buy. We saw a 50 point rally to 4703. The question was for an immediate day trading strategy. Also, sometimes it works, and, sometimes it does not work. In earlier posts, I have explained why following analyst comments may not be the ideal day trading strategy.

CNBC Awaaz has started a new show. On thursday, at 2 PM they asked me: give a Nifty strategy. I said (all numbers for June futures): go long now (4655) , keep a stop of 4610 and look for a target of 4700 - 4710 tomorrow. Now, the Nifty touched 4703. Did the strategy make money for the trader or did he wait for 4710 only to be stopped out at 4610 later in the day. So, these ideas are just that = ideas. If the trader does not apply his common sense, he is not going anywhere.

Frankly, if the trader practices, gains experience, he / she does not need any analyst inputs.

4 comments:

Pi said...

sir

couple of things i wanted to ask unrelated to this post.

a. while looking at levels or charts, should one look at spot levels or futures levels. quite often they would be in tandem, but not so at time. i mean what is the technical analysis theoretical view on this.

b. if one is trading a quant system, is 100% discipline must or can one in limited circumstances use one's discretion based on levels or charts or market conditions? If so, when ?

for example in a trend following system i was long on friday, but having seen that mkt reversed twice earlier frm arnd here i booked and took a short. that infact was a deviation from my quant system, but a very good call to take. later in the day the system itself turned short.

ashu said...

Dear Mr. Sukhani,

From the "JUST-LIKE-THAT" Department!!!

I write for a few reasons...

a. I fail to understand why you should be defending your trading calls to people who do not understand the market / technical analysis.

b. I remember writing on your blog when the Nifty (FUT) was making 2228. I guess it was the day before Diwali and I had nothing else to do and I wrote on your page when I saw a bullish engulfing pattern on the hourly chart that afternoon. Once more I wrote to you when I observed the principle of time compression, (inspired by a discussion on how long will the bear market last) taking the resemblance from the DOW Monthly over three decades ago to the NIFTY Weekly three years ago...

c. I also write to thank you for a few things that you have taught me which I shall be happy to share with you over another forum rather than this one.

d. I saw you once in person at the arrivals building of the New Delhi Domestic Airport (about 3 years ago) and I really knew little more than drawing a trend-line so I was quite hesitant to walk up-to you and just wish you. That is my regret :)

So all in all... many thanks to you and the brainwaves your blog inspires inside my skull... Will always be treasured. May God be with you in everything you do and bless those you care for..

Warm regards...

aashish

A Student for Life, of Life (and of Markets) said...

I hope people will understand that day trading recommendations will be quite volatile and comparing comments will be very tricky unless someone timestamps these comments.

Overall, Sudarshan has been very honest in highlighting risks in trading as well as risks in his own forecasting.

Besides, he has taken pains time and again to point out that stochastic or probabilistic predictions cannot be verified using small sample sizes.

Furthermore, guys and girls, take responsibility for your trades. No one asks you to put in a buy or a sell based on Sudarshan's or anyone else's statement. Take ownership on your own trade and that will either make you more resolute or make you give it all up - but without blaming anyone for it.

Student of Market
stockmarket-methods-in-madness

gurvi said...

Thanks Sudarshan ji for answering my question.

I agree with you that TV analysts comments should not matter however we only listen to you :)

You are by far the most honest analyst I've seen. SO PLEASE BE LIKE THIS. I'm sure other viewer of this blogger share the same feeling.

Thanks
Gurvinder (Gurvi)