Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Guest Post : Market heading or beheaded

I received this email, found it worthy of being reproduced fully.

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Sudarshanji NAMASKAR !

I am reading your blog,watching and try to understand your comment from CNBC. I am appreciates your efforts to give right direction to miniature(smallest) traders and investers( Some times not commenting ,you say too much)

since 17th April It is hard to believe that market is not falling.
Reason:-

Technicals:
(1) As on 15/April 09 RSI (9) & (11) is 85.80 & 83.09Next day market corrected sharply 114 points,( I am sure it is calculated move to adjust TA criteria)
(2) Nifty as on 9,13,15,16,17,20th April not holding 3400,and closes below 3400 (except 15 April).
(3) Since 15th April 09,STC also giving negative signal.MACD is also in downward trends.
(4)Fibonacci Retrachment level (bear) prior to up trend(low 2524 as on 27/Oct and 3148 high as on 10 Nov & 4 Nov) 38 % is 2762, 50 % is 2836 and 62 % is 2910

Fundamentals:-
(1) As per government recession/slowdown is not over,even not in USA/UK
(2) "India need some bosster package in 2010 too." MontekSingh Ahuvalia
(3) before few day of market rally Economist worried about excessive borrowing of Govt.
(4) All Other markets fall during this up trend our market buck this fall.(then why we see US& Asians Market daily)
(5) As per analyst,Infosys guidlines is not as per expected.Infosys see tougher Q1 2010-11 than Q4 2009-10
(6)Crude fall during this up trends. (Is RIL affected/benefited ? stock Price ?)
(7) There is no sign of Auto sectors revivals.(which sectors reviving ?)

This all factors show us Mirror infront of us. Is there some Satyam Way in Corporates Or Akruti way in the market ? Market goes up and down that is their character but after 2 failed attempt to cross 3400, it is eminent that market not going up than who is interested and wants that market have to cross 3400 levels? ( Is someone there behind the wall ? I strongly feel so.)

Why government gives approval of write back of MTM rules( I think it is AS11), and instead of punishing those companies market flowered them with handsome gain in their stock price,so I think traders/market do not wants true BALANCE SHEET ?

(CHHOTE or MAZOLE share ki to baat hi nirali in BEAR market, If any buddy don"t belive it see all recomondation on TV. )
I request you to give some guidlines on the above points for general investors.(Data collected from webs so may have some variation)

with regards & great respect.
M.K.Sanariya Junagadh(Gujarat)

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4 comments:

Manish Chauhan said...

wooo...

This person has got so deep insight :) , worth learning .. Well this was really a point in many heads , but he has really put it with reasons and points to ponder :)

Manish

Ashish said...

wow!! It would be very interesting to hear your thoughts on this one!!

Pi said...

I have written a blog post on why i am bearish on nifty. Not so great (funny) as above.. but still great, atleast I would feel so :)

Do have a look -

http://understandingtechnicalanalysis.blogspot.com/

Krishna said...

True that mkt is not falling but then why we should not take mkt as it is....why we should expect that it wud run as per our understanding..in fact best way is to remian with the mkt and manage the trade accordingly..
mkt is trading above previous yearly & monthly close so we should not under estimate the might of bulls..bears are on side lines at the moment..