Intervie with Nouriel Roubini: The $700 Billion Bailout Isn’t Enough (from U.S. News & World Report )
December 18, 2008
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Do you think stocks have bottomed?
No, I don't think so. Of course, in the last few weeks we have been in another bear market rally, but bear market rallies have occurred for the last 12 months. Markets rally after shocks, and then shocks come and they fall further. But I see another downside to U.S. and global equities of at least 15 to 20 percent from current levels for three reasons. One is that the news about the economy—both in the U.S. and abroad—is going to be much worse then expected. The numbers have been just awful, and they are going to get worse. Two, there is still a lot of delusion about what earnings are going to be in 2009. And three, I think that there are going to be many more financial shocks, other large institutions going bust—highly leveraged institutions like hedge funds.
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My View: I have felt that the current up move is a bear market rally. Bear or Bull, a rally should be used to buy. The charts will often give us signs of trend exhaustion. To change our view from bullish to bearish we have to wait for a change in trend. This has not happened yet.
I hope to write more posts, so keep visiting.
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4 comments:
sudharshanji- how do we know then the charts give signs of exhaustion?
dear sudarshan sir
I to believe in yours and i think that that you are always right on bear market rallies i regularly read your comments that you post on your site i knew it very well you are the only person in indian stock market who actually knew six months ago that nifty would be 2600 i am fond of yours since that i have saved my 5 lakh from yours comments i sold allm my stocks now i am going to start your day vinayak service from 29th dec
yours faithfully
devesg dixit
Every hour i visit ur blog to see your posts,but you will write only one post.we are expecting more from you sir.the fifteen minute rule it helped me a lot.you are at this position,but you are like a open book.for new traders u are giving a valuable suggestions about technical trading and trading rules.i misunderstand u while watching CNBC,but u r really few of them who are down to earth persons.thank you and god bless u.
He may be right as he has been in predicting, a year back of a severe credit crisis in US. B.T.W. for his extreme negative views, he is called Dr. DOOM
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