Friday, October 17, 2008

What is going on ? It is a bear market.

So much for the rally. After a higher open, the gains lasted for maybe two hours (positive territory). Then, the Nifty was back to business, falling, faling .....

The Bear Market seems to be following the pattern of the earlier bull market. In the good old days, the bull market aw strong upside moentum. Corrections in the market were mainly intra day, running corrections lasting just a few hours. Now the shoe is on the other side. Rallies last just a few hours.

Markets tend to overshoot. Thus, we had bull market excesses. Now, maybe we will see bear market excesses. Bull market excesses are identified by euphoria - everybody is in the market, everyone is an expert, certainly better than Sudarshan. Bear market excesses are identified by disinterest. People simply turn away from the market. This lays the foundation of the next bull market. On the charts, disinterest takes the shape of a consolidation / trading range.

In India, markets keep on falling. New lows are being made. There is no sign of disinterest or trading range.
However, even as the bar market continues, there will be rallies. Nifty seems to be ready for one such rally. There are divergences on many charts, including the Nifty. I wrote this yeterday, then the Nifty fell 195 points today. But, the technical patterns have not been cancelled. Therefore, traders may like to take buying signals on intra day charts. Keep proper stops. if the signal does not work out, you are stopped out for small losses. When the short term trend does change to up, you should make some money.

4 comments:

tushar said...

I think bear market is as enjoyable as bull market.
means you earn by short selling.

But problem in cash market is that we have to cover our short the same day.
This is not the case in US i guess
While a buy can be holded.
That's why i think ppl find it easier to buy.
pls Correct me if i m wrong.

B M Kajaria said...

I am from kolkata when this down trend will stop and a lasting uptrend will start can you predict.

missu said...

Dear sir,
I am Naimesh. Market fall daily more & more. And we can't understand ......why it end ??
I see u sir mostly on CNBC. I request sir please start only NIFTY & SENSEX leval and market outlook on your site so people understand. One request sir to save lital and normal trader by gidance from u .
thanks a lot sir

rajivhtc said...

namaskar sukhani ji,

yes would be good if you discuss nifty levels and trading strategy on nifty from time to time.

warm regards
rajiv malik