Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Probably a short term low is in place

The good news is that the market may have seen at least a short term low on Friday, Ocotber 17. If this analysis is correct, then over the next few days (or weeks!) money will be made on the long side of the market, by buying. If this analysis turns out to be wrong, a small loss will be made as trades are stopped out.

It does appear that Indian markets may continue to underperform the U.S. market. The reason is : FII's. With the U.S. Dollar getting stronger, U.S. markets roaring upwards, it makes sense to sell in India and invest in the USA. Sense for the FII's, that is.

This is a factor over which we have no control. What this means is there may be sudden bouts of selling coming in on rallies. Therefore, (a) Traders should take profits on Range Expansion - big move in their favor, and, (b) do not trade on both sides, meaning long and short both. Take a view and trade only on one side. This will ensure that they do not get caught in volatility.

Have Fun!

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