Monday, October 6, 2008

Prices fall in a bear market

The Nifty has fallen to 3600 today. In January of this year, the Index was at 6350. That's a loss of 2750 points - 43%. By all standards, a 43% decline in prices represents a severe bear market.

All of this is History. The fact is: share prices have come down. Most mid cap / small cap stocks have fallen more than 43%. You know it if you own some of them.

There is no purpose in crying over spilt milk. We should look ahead.

If you own shares:

Switch from momentum stocks to blue chips. Try to buy marketable (futures lot size) lots. The advantage in owning marketable lots is your ability to sell calls against these shares. Okay, Sell calls against the shares that you own. This will allow you to collect some 'rent' on your shares. While the amount may not be significant now, over a period of time, the options premium collected every month will slowly become a significant amount, reducing the cost of youe shares.

If you do not own shares:

Keep 3600 as a benchmark. Invest 10% of your capital at this level. Every time the Nifty goes down by 150 points (from the latest highs recorded) , invest 10% more. on every rally of 100 points, sell 5%. After a few years, you will possess a worhtwhile portfolio at low cost. This system will work because of one assumption - that the market will remain sideways for a few years.


Rmoneyproblemsinstatrade said...

Could we do the same for even IT stocks like infosys/wipro? Wipro has reached close to its last 14 years low of 295 which may not hold tomorrow, please also give us your favoured sector for delivery basis buying.

Rmoneyproblemsinstatrade said...

How about collecting Niftybees and shorting the mini after a decent recovery.
sudhin bathija

tushar said...

3600 as a benchmark may work.
But it's important to note that nifty is a falling knife till 2000 as Sudarshanji pointed out that there is no support till 2000 nifty can stop whereever.
My view is to stop this falling knife i.e. nifty many investers/traders will bleed i.e. will loss money trying to stop it.
If at all it's stoppped i.e.nifty then I don't think it will immediately start an uptrend i.e. no V shaped recovery.
I think it will spent weeks and weeks in a range then may even give a false breakout downside and then will finally start what ppl call a bull market. This takes time.
A sailing ship takes a lot of time to change direction. Just be patient especially investers.
Note: this is my independent view may or may not work.
Tushar Khatri