Thursday, October 23, 2008

Naughty Nifty, falls again

I have seen and traded in two bear markets - 1992 and 2000. But the last 10 weeks have been indeed remarkable.
Change of subject: have you read about the Battle of Britain ? This was in World War 2, when the German Air Force bombed London 24 hours a day, for many months. How did the Londoners feel ?
Like traders facing waves after waves of selling. The Nifty has not seen a decent rally for the past many weeks. Downside momentum is so strong, the fallen market does not have the strength to raise its head, leave aside stand up.

Is Bad news Good ?

Conventional wisdom says that the end of a bear market is visible when the market is pounded by bad news but it fails to go down.
The wise did not tell us the inference when the market is pounded by bad news and it goes down. I suspect this is a sign that the bear market is alive and kicking.

Understanding Momentum
In the present scenario, support and resistance on the Nifty have no relevance. If an FII is selling, do they say to themselves - "I should not sell here because the Nifty has support " ? No. Chances are they shout loudly on the phone - "sell quickly and get out!".
The down momentum must stop before traders can start thinking about a short term or intermediate up trend. These are not normal, cyclical markets.

And, yet a final low will be made.
Since we can never call the lowest point of the down move, it is wise to wait till (a) down mometum ends, (b) consolidation begins, and, (c) there is a test of the lows made. If this requires you to buy 20% higher, so be it.

2 comments:

B M Kajaria said...

Now FII's are dragging the market next year elections to loksabha will drag the market down when this downward journey of the market will stop.

CA. DEEPAK PANT said...

Experience teaches everything. I read your blog but never follow you. I make mistakes. I love to make mistakes.
Meditation means living in the present. This means giving up on HOPE. This market is teaching me to give up on HOPE and to live in this moment.This market is helping me in meditating. I have lost all that i had saved in my 2 years at work before resigning to do what i enjoyed. But who cares?
thank you
CA. Deepak Pant