Sunday, September 21, 2008

A Low in place: Possible.

The Nifty finally closed the week at 4225, up 17 points from the previous week.
Read this again. The market was almost unchanged at the close of of the week. Traders who have gone through five days of tumultous trading may not believe that the markets remained where started.
The Nifty now remains inside a trading range. Still there!
A larger range between 3800 and 4650 holds strongly, providing substantial support around 3800. There is strong resistance at 4650. Then, nothing has changed.
Trading should continue to follow the trading range pattern. Short selling is best avoided. If you do get a sell signal, consider using options rather than futures.
Plan a strategy that buys on dips. The dips have to be defined in relation to your time frame - day, swing or position trading.


lovemeall26 said...

Hello Sudarshanji,
I am a day cum swing and momentum futures trader who trades this market everyday. I follow you keenly on CNBC and take note of your levels too. I am also a chartist and follow my own charts regularly. As you will notice we have made double bottom at 3800 on 18th sep. With so much good news coming out from the west etc, do you think this bear market is now over. Has the new bull run started. I am sitting on huge cash to invest at lower levels than 3800because as per my experience, I know bear markets dont end the way it seems to be ending now. Please throw more light on this aspect as you are a senior and also much experience in this field. Your kind and honest thoughts on this shall be highly appreciated.
thank you

Aurobindo said...

There wont be a bull market soon. It did touch the lower levels and bounced back but that doesn't mean its the bottom. In my opinion breaking 3800 is no big deal. If you see weekely sensex chart you may notice a fairly week support around 12200-12700. I think the nifty will consolidate in these levels. This range can truly become very support/ resistance (in case nifty break 3800).I think we can analyse and conclude only after 2 weeks.