Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Still undecided, Nifty locked in Narrow range

The Nifty remained locked inside this extremely narrow range between 4340 and 4280, for the fourth day.
This is quite unusual, for the Index to move in such narrow ranges. A big strong move is coming. The direction of this move is unknown.
A move below 4280 should see the beginning of a down move that could take the Nifty down to 4150. On the upside, a rally should face resistance at 4400, then 4450. Wait for the market to show its hand.
With every passing day, option premiums continue to fall. While implied volatility has not yet gone below 30 (for Nifty September & October options), it continues to decline.
Traders may like to set up a strangle:
Buy 4300 September PUT
Buy 4400 September Call
We are buying the Call for 4400 strike so that the cost of the call remains a little lower.
Management of this trade:
Stay with the strangle till the end of September. Either it will make money or the investment may become zero. Since risk is high, invest only such amounts that can become zero without causing you discomfort.
NOIDA on August 30
I will be paticipating in the CNBC Investor Camp scheduled for August 30, Saturday at NOIDA, NCR.

1 comment:

shabsaif said...

I wish your words will come true. But I think if the last 4 days narrow range will break either side than why you expecting big move, it may be possible that range will shift to little wider because there is no major triger except inflation data, and hope inflation will consolidate in range of 12.5 to 13.