Thursday, August 7, 2008

Probably not a time to go long

The Nifty is facing heavy weather around 4600 where substantial overhead resistance exists. We have also seen an 800 point rally in the Nifty. The time has come for some kind of a correction.
The chart patterns made in the last two days do not help the bulls. Both days have seen DOJI - where the open and close are roughly equal. A DOJI suggests indecision in the market. Both days have also seen long upper shadows. The shadow is created when the price moves up but meets with resistance, quickly retreating back. The shadow, when visible at the top of a rally is indicating that the bulls are slowly losing their strength.
This then is no time to start buying. If you have plus (long) positions, then consider taking profits / loss. A move below 4500 will indicate that the short term trend may have turned down.
Fresh long positions should be created when the Nifty is able to move above 4600 decisively. This requires a close above 4600 for more than one day.
Then, the area between 4500 and 4600 is some kind of a no trade zone.
The price of crude fell to $118 - a three month low. We have to see the decline in context of a rally from $60 to $147. In this context, the decline is probably a correction rather than a bear market. Of course, we can be wrong. But the benefit of doubt should go to the trend, which has been up for the past two years.
Keep visiting, I hope to post again before midnight.

1 comment:

gurdeep said...

i am gurdeep singh from patiala and i may forget to take dinnar but do not forget to read ur comments Mr. Sukhani.