Saturday, August 23, 2008

Not the end of the bear market

Nouriel Roubini is now the world's most famous economist for having correctly predicted the sub prime crisis. On August 20, in his blog,, he writes:
1. This is by far the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, not as severe as the Great Depression but second only to it.
2. Equity prices in the US and abroad will go much deeper in bear territory. In a typical US recession equity prices fall by an average of 28% relative to the peak. But this is not a typical US recession; it is rather a severe one associated with a severe financial crisis. Thus, equity prices will fall by about 40% relative to their peak. So, we are only barely mid-way in the meltdown of US and global stock markets.
3. While the rest of the world will experience a severe growth slowdown only one step removed from a global recession.

That's not all. Jim Rogers, hedge fund star who correctly predicted the rise of China, says in an interview on August 19:
This how the interview starts:
U.S. financial debacle is now so ingrained – and a so-called “Super Crash” so likely – that most Americans alive today won’t be around by the time the last of this credit-market mess is finally cleared away – if it ever is, Rogers said.

Well, we will leave it like this. While no one can predict the future, it does seem that the bear market has some time to go before we see an end.

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