Thursday, August 28, 2008

The Nifty sees 4200, what next ?

The Nifty broke down from a narrow range, with support at 4280 giving way to a sharp intra day decline. The Index closed at 4220.
Having touched 4200, a target metioned in this blog earlier, the big question is: What are the possible scenarios for the coming days ?
Scenario #1: Most Likely. The Index has fallen almost 450 points from its peak. It has corrected 50% of the rally from 3800 to 4650. This is a good location for some support to come in. the Index sees some kind of a rally with resistance coming in at 4280 (minor), then 4400. At some point, the rally should face selling, and the primary down trend may reassert itself.
Scenario #2: Maybe. The Nifty tries to rally, does not quite succeed with 4280 coming in as resistance. A breakdown below 4200 sees 4150, then 4000, then 3800.
Actionable Ideas:
Take a view, then be disciplined and follow it. If you are looking for a rally, wait for the market to move up, then buy on dips with proper stop losses. If you are looking for a decline, then wait for the market to turn down from resistance, and then take positions.


saj said...

Dear Sudarshan ji
I have been following you for the last 3 yrs or so now and am a real follower of your calls and now of your blogs. i still remember your call for praj at 95 in on...
thank you for your great blogs and links.
i have been wanting to trade the markets with little luck.
i ve been using kotak securities online package for charting.can you suggest a good and economical charting package for real time trading.

pls keep up the great work. you are one analyst on whose calls i have great faith as they are clear and presice.

warm regards and take care.

shabsaif said...

Yes, I agree with Scenario # 1, as my previous comments, if nifty break 4270 there may be small low down instead of explosive move down. I think now new support 4200 is become major support.