Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Getting Ready for the Big One

The Nifty has been trading in a range between 4280 and 4340 for the past three days. [The range was calculated taking the real bodies of the candles for these days].
A 60 point range for the Nifty cannot be sustained for long. This narrow movement will give way to a large explosive move. But before the move takes place, it is difficult to determine the direction of the move.
Here are some pointers.
After reaching 4600+, the Nifty moved into a small range between 4600 to 4500. Eventually, it broke down from this range. A second range developed between 4400 and 4500. This one also broke on the downside. Now, we have a third range. If the Nfity were to move below 4280, we should expect lower levels, maybe 4150.
The other possibility is that of an up move. Traders should go long on a move above 4340. The first resistance is at 4400, then at 4500.
Actionable Ideas:
The range between 4280 and 4340 is some kind of a "dead zone". Avoid trading inside this zone. Buy above 4340, sell below 4280. It is possible that the market may go through a false breakout / breakdown. It is okay to be stopped out and reverse direction. If you get stopped out for a second time, then step aside since the market may not be willing to reward.

My first post for the day" New math for the Rich" is just below this one. Scroll down and read it. the post is in good humor.


anshul said...

thanks sudarshan i was looking for ur view about nifty ..thanks a ton...

raja said...

sir i never fail to watch ur comments on cnbc tv.ur analysis is very good based on the trends.i wonder why some analysts give buy recommendations when the intermediate and minor trends are down but u correctly follow the trend.great work. keep it up.

Junaid said...

Sir, ur analysis abt the market are always gr8...?? fastastic work..
I still remember ur saying tht Nifty is ready for a big move... and the very next day it happened... it was gr8...
Besides nifty Can u plz give me some stock ideas too...???