Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Nifty falls again, large risks of a free fall

The Nifty continued its trending move, falling again to new lows, breaking the 4000 level decisively, then touching and closing at 3850. It is possible that 3850 may provide short term support for the Index. Below 3850, the Nifty has minor support at 3600, then a free fall. The nearest support after 3600 is at 2600. Now, this is not to suggest that the Index will fall to 2600. I do not know. But, the absence of support suggests that we do not have any measure of a point at which the Nifty may stop falling. Worrying
An upward sloping flag in the Nifty has broken down today. A flag is usually made half way in a decline. Earlier, we had calculated that the target for the flag comes at 3170. Again, a target is just that - a mathematical measure. It may or may not come about. We must remember that it does often work out, so the probability is in favor of meeting the target.