Monday, June 2, 2008

Markets will fall in an Intermediate down trend

Much to the surprise of traders, the Nifty continued its decline on Monday, June 2, falling by 125 points. I am surprised because everyone is surprised. Too many surprises!
The Nifty is in an intermediate downtrend. The basic idea of any trend is the movement of prices in the direction of the trend. If the trend is down, then prices should move down. This is easy to understand, logical and reasonable. Yet, everybody is surprised by the reasonable.
The classic definition of an intermediate downtrend is lower highs & lower lows. The Nifty has already confirmed this pattern ten days ago. Since then, it has been expected that the pattern direction - down - will continue. And it is moving down, rather strongly today.
What is then the target for this down move ? Now, this is a difficult question. Target setting is never a good idea. Sometimes, it is possible to define a possible target based on patterns. But these numbers are just guides for us. It is safe to expect that the Nifty will test the lows made in January - February of this year - about 4450. As the Index stands at 4715 today, the next leg of the decline should easily see it test the 4450 levels. Tests are significant technical actions. A successful test will give an early indication of a new bull market, while a breakdown will tell us that there is much more downside to come.